[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170551
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 15W from 12N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: the tropical wave is
moving through the area of the ITCZ. The wave is surrounded by
ITCZ precipitation.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 15N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: the tropical wave
is moving through the area of the ITCZ. The wave is surrounded
by ITCZ precipitation.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W from 17N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 13N southward between the tropical wave
and Trinidad.

A tropical wave is along 90W from 20N southward, moving westward
10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is inland from Nicaragua to Honduras, to the Yucatan
Peninsula, to Guatemala, and to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the northern coastal sections
of Guinea near 11N15W, to 10N20W and 08N33W. The ITCZ continues
along 08N36W 06N41W 05N49W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is in clusters from the Equator to
11N between 47W and 53W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 02N to 10N between 13W and 47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

One surface trough cuts across the SW corner of Louisiana. A
second surface trough in the SW corner of Alabama.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the coastal waters and
coastal plains of the U.S.A. from 28N northward between the
Florida Panhandle and 94W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the Gulf
of Mexico.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf of Mexico during the next several
days. Gentle to moderate easterly winds, and 2 to 4 ft seas, are
expected through Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak upper level inverted trough is in the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, between 80W and Nicaragua. The monsoon trough is
along 09N/10N from 73W/74W in Colombia beyond Costa Rica.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 30 nm to
45 nm on either side of the line that runs from 10N78W to 12N81W
to 14N82W to 16N84W.

A 700 mb inverted trough extends from the Yucatan Channel to the
eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula to Belize and the Gulf of
Honduras. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 17N northward from Jamaica westward, and in the
waters that are between Haiti, Cuba, and Jamaica. Scattered
strong precipitation is at the SE corner of the Dominican
Republic.

The current 56W tropical wave will cross the Windward Islands on
Wednesday. The wave will reach the central Caribbean Sea on
Thursday night. The current 35W tropical wave will reach the
Lesser Antilles on Friday. Fresh to strong trade winds will
continue in the south central Caribbean Sea through Friday, and
then expand in coverage during the upcoming weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N76W to 29N75W. A surface trough
continues from 29N75W, to the Bahamas near 25N76W, to the coast
of Cuba near 23N80W. A second surface trough passes through
32N62W to 26N63W and 24N66W. A third surface trough is along
32N64W 30N68W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong covers the area that is from 20N northward from 55W
westward, including across the eastern half of Cuba.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 27N northward from 33W eastward. Rainshowers
are possible in the area of cyclonic wind flow.

The current 29N75W-central Bahamas-northern Cuba surface trough
will drift eastward, N of 27N, through Thursday, and then it
will weaken. Atlantic Ocean high pressure will build across the
region by the end of the week. Fresh to occasionally strong
easterly winds will pulse, in the waters that are to the north
of Hispaniola, at night.

$$
mt
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