[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
158 AM EDT TUE Jun 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the E Atlc extending from 18N with
axis near 25W, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are in
the vicinity of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc extending from 19N with
axis near 41W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted about 100 nm on either side of the wave
axis.

A tropical wave is near 17N with axis near 51W, moving W at 15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is south of 11N between 49W and
56W. The tropical wave will cross the Lesser Antilles Tue night,
then move across the eastern Caribbean through early Thu.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean along 64W from 16N
southward moving W around 10-15 kt. There is no convection
over water associated with this wave due to dry air in the area.
Scattered moderate convection is noted mainly inland south of 10N.
The tropical wave will move across the central Caribbean Tue
afternoon through early Thu and across the western Caribbean Thu
night to Fri night.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean S of 20N with axis along
85W, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is within 150 nm ahead and 240 nm behind the wave
axis from 11N-19N, including over eastern portions of Honduras
and Nicaragua. The tropical wave will exit the basin by early
Tue afternoon.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Guinea-Bissau and
Gambia near 12N16W to 10N21W. The ITCZ is from 08N35W to 06N40W
then continues from 06N45W to 06N50W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical waves, there is no further
significant convection.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A large and deep layered upper-level low encompasses eastern
portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, and the Carolinas, and
extends a broad upper-level trough axis to southern Georgia
to the eastern Gulf to the SW Gulf. GOES water vapor channels
and TPW imagery indicate that the atmosphere is generally dry
in the northern Gulf but quite moist over the southern and
west-central Gulf. At the surface, a trough is analyzed over
the SW Gulf from 23N96W to the Bay of Campeche. Isolated sHowers
are over the southern Gulf, generally in southeast Gulf from
Naples, Florida to the Yucatan Channel. A recent ASCAT pass
shows gentle to moderate wind speeds over the basin.

A surface trough will linger over the Yucatan peninsula and SW
Gulf through Tue. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will dominate the
remainder basin supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds
through the entire period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See above.

An upper-level trough is over the eastern and southern Gulf of
Mexico, while an upper-level ridge is over the central Caribbean.
In between those features, abundant atmospheric moisture is being
transported to the western Caribbean Sea, as shown by TPW imagery.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen the Windward
Passage and south of Cuba. Isolated thunderstorms are seen in the
Gulf of Honduras and Yucatan Channel. In the far SW Caribbean,
the east Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate
convection from 14N-08N between 76W-83W. Drier air is over the eastern
Caribbean east of 75W. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong trades
over the south-central Caribbean.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over portions of
the western Caribbean waters are expected to continue through
Tue. A tropical wave with axis near 83W will exit the basin by early
Tue afternoon. A second tropical wave just west of the Windward
Islands will move across the eastern Caribbean through Tue, the
central Caribbean Tue afternoon through early Thu and across the
western Caribbean Thu night through Fri night. A third tropical wave
will enter the eastern Tropical N Atlantic waters early Tue, cross
the Lesser Antilles late Tue night, then move across the eastern
Caribbean through early Thu and across the central Caribbean
through Fri night. Otherwise, fresh to strong trade winds will
remain over the south-central Caribbean through Fri, then expand
in coverage beginning late on Fri and through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1016 mb low is along the coast near the Florida-Georgia border
near 31N78W with a surface trough extending south to 25N78W. A
weak stationary front extends westward from the low across
Jacksonville to near Tallahassee Florida. CIMSS analysis
shows a large area of upper-level divergence from the
central and northwest Bahamas northward to the Carolinas.
Scattered moderate convection is seen east of the surface trough
from 27N-32N to 70W between 71W-80W. Another surface trough is
analyzed from 24N71W to 28N64W to 28N59W to 30N58W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from the
northern waters of Cuba northeastward across the Bahamas to
within 180 nm either side of the surface trough to 28N72W,
then becomes scattered moderate to the Bermuda area.

The low center will slowly track well north of the area through
Thu pulling the trough away from the area. Until then, the
combination of this trough and plenty of available moisture in
place over the western Atlantic will result in unsettled weather
over these waters through Thu. Central Atlantic high pressure
will begin to build westward toward the Bahamas and Florida Thu
through Fri night.

Farther east, an upper-level trough axis extends from 32N32W to
24N50W to the eastern Caribbean. Upper-level diffluence well
east of this axis is causing scattered moderate convection within
300 nm SE of the trough to the N of 26N. Fresh NE winds are noted
from 18N-27N between 20W-30W.

$$
MTorres
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