[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141105
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 02N-17N with axis near 34W, moving
westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-10N
between 30W-40W.

A tropical wave extends from 02N-18N with axis near 44W, moving
westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
02N-10N between 40W-50W.

A tropical wave extends from 02N-16N with axis near 57W, moving
westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are from 06N-12N between 50W-62W.

A tropical wave extends from 11N-18N with axis near 75W, moving
westward around 15 kt. Middle to low level dry air hinder
convection in the vicinity of the wave.

A tropical wave is moving across Central America and the NW
Caribbean with axis near 87W, moving west around 10 kt. Middle to
upper level diffluent flow support numerous moderate isolated
strong convection off the coast of Nicaragua and E Honduras to
near 78W and scattered showers and tstms across Cuba adjacent
waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N15W to 08N23W. The ITCZ
continues to 05N42W to 04N52W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical waves, numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection extends from 03N-09N between 09W to 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Except for scattered showers and tstsms in the SE Gulf enhanced by
a middle to upper level trough, the remainder basin is under fair
weather conditions being supported by dry air subsidence.
Otherwise, weak surface high pressure across the area results in gentle
to moderate winds with locally fresh winds.

The surface trough will linger in the Yucatan peninsula and SW
basin through Mon night. Weak high pressure will dominate the
remainder basin supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds through the entire period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main concern in the Caribbean is the convection off the coast
of Nicaragua and Colombia.

A tropical wave with axis near 87W will move west of the basin
today. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms east of
this wave are expected to be active through early Mon. A pair of
tropical waves, one in the central basin and another entering the
E Caribbean today will move across the basin through Wed, however
no significant convection is expected associated with it. A fourth
tropical wave will enter the eastern part of the Tropical N
Atlantic waters on Thu. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds
will remain over the central Caribbean through early next week,
with locally strong winds pulsing in the Gulf of Venezuela and
near the coast of Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front is expected to move off the
southeastern U.S. coast early next week, then stall over the
northern Florida offshore waters through Wed. Low pressure may
form along the front. The front will weaken into a trough from Wed
into Thu. While this takes place, a trough will linger between
South Florida and the NW Bahamas. Expect unsettled weather
conditions over the waters in the vicinity of the Bahamas and
westward to the Florida coast for the next few days.

$$
Ramos
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