[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122216
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
616 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2215 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 24W south of 17N, moving
westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 04N-11N between 22W-30W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 36W south of 17N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
03N-08N between 30W-38W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 49W south of 15N, moving
westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
05N-10N between 47W-52W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 65W south of 16N, moving
westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate showers and isolated
tstorms are noted from 12N- 16N between 60W-65W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 80W south of 19N, moving
westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
09N-16N between 53W-83W, enhanced by the east Pacific monsoon
trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes off the coast of Africa near 13N17W
to 07N24W. The ITCZ extends from 06N27W to 09N35W, then continues
from 08.5N38W to 07N47W, then continues from 06.5N52W to 06.5N57W.
Aside from convection described in the tropical waves section,
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 04N-
08N between 11W-17W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
was noted from 05N-08N between 52W-58W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Big Bend region
across the central Gulf to near Tampico, Mexico. Isolated
showers are along and just SE of the front W of 90W. A surface
trough is analyzed from 29N83W to 22N85W. Scattered showers and
tstorms are along the trough. Moderate to locally fresh winds
prevail W of the front, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing
E of the front.

The stationary front will continue to weaken tonight and
dissipate on Sat afternoon. Moderate to fresh northeast winds
behind the front will diminish by Sat. Fresh to strong northwest
winds will continue over the SW Gulf near the coast of Veracruz,
Mexico tonight through Sat night. Weak high pressure will build
over the northern Gulf early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean Sea. See above. Gentle
to moderate winds prevail over the central and eastern Caribbean.
Light to gentle winds prevail over the western Caribbean.

Moderate to fresh trades over the central Caribbean will
strengthen early next week and change little through the middle of
the week as central Atlantic high pressure builds westward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is from 32N54W to 26N56W to Hispaniola. Numerous
moderate isolated strong convection is from 23N-32N E of the
trough to 50W. Isolated showers and tstorms are elsewhere along
the surface trough. The trough will weaken while it drifts
northwestward during the weekend. Elsewhere, a broad, weak high
pressure ridge extends across the northern waters north of 27N
between 66W-80W. This ridge will weaken and lift northward through
Sat. A weak cold front may move off the SE U.S. coast early next
week, then stall over the northern Florida offshore waters.

Farther east, another high pressure ridge extends across the
central and eastern Atlantic, with moderate to fresh trades south
of 20N and west of 35W. Fresh to strong NE winds are found off
the west coast of Africa from 19N-26N, east of 27W.

$$
AL/Hagan
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