[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111021
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
621 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 40W from 13N southward moving westward
10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection exists within about
120 nm either side of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is along 57W S of 12N moving west at 10 to 15 kt.
Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is clustered
around 11N56W.

A tropical wave is along 73W from 16N southward moving westward
10 to 15 knots. This wave is interacting with an upper level
trough over the central Caribbean to produce numerous moderate and
isolated strong thunderstorms throughout a broad area of the
southeast and south-central Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W, to 08N18W and 08N24W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N24W, to 07N32W and 07N38W, and along 06N from
40W to 47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
located within 90 nm mainly north of both boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through SE Louisiana, into the north central
Gulf of Mexico, curving southwestward to the coast of Mexico
near 23W98W. Strong thunderstorms are located across nearshore
Mexican waters near the frontal boundary. Otherwise, aside from
scattered moderate showers offshore south Florida, dry conditions
prevail.

The cold front currently from SE LA to Tampico, Mexico will stall
by tonight from the FL Big Bend into the Bay of Campeche. It will
then gradually devolve into a trough by the weekend. Some fresh
NE winds are possible behind the front over the western Gulf for
the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Low pressure 1010 mb centered near 11N79W is inducing scattered
thunderstorms throughout the southwest Caribbean. The earlier
described tropical wave in the central Caribbean is also producing
convection. Otherwise, dry weather prevails.

Low pressure will prevail into the weekend just N of Panama. A
tropical wave S of Hispaniola early this morning will pass S of
Jamaica tonight, then gradually approach Central America by this
weekend. Another stronger tropical wave will enter the basin late
today, pass S of Puerto Rico Fri, then enter the central
Caribbean over the weekend. Moderate trades will start to increase
this weekend


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N49W, to 28N50W, 22N60W
22N70W. The stationary front continues northwestward, across the
Bahamas, to 29N79W. Scattered moderate thunderstorms are banded
along this entire boundary this morning.

Low pressure E of Bermuda near 34N54W of 1012 mb is weakening and
becoming less organized early this morning. A cold front extends
from this low to 20N65W to 29N79W. The low will generally
dissipate by tonight and the remnant front will diminish into a
trough while slowly drifting W into the weekend. High pressure
will build in behind the front and be the dominant weather feature
through weekend.

$$
KONARIK
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