[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 38W/39W from 13N southward moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: the tropical wave is
moving through the area of the ITCZ. The wave is surrounded by
ITCZ precipitation.

A tropical wave is along 13N55W 09N54W 03N53W, moving westward
10 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate
and isolated strong is within 180 nm to the west of the tropical
wave from 10N to 13N.

A tropical wave is along 70W/71W from 17N southward moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: high clouds that are in
the southern part of the Caribbean Sea are moving northeastward,
with the broad upper level cyclonic wind flow that covers the
Caribbean Sea. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong is within 200 nm to the east of the tropical
wave along the coast of Venezuela, and within 175 nm to the west
of the tropical wave off the coast of Colombia.

A tropical wave is along 89W/90W from 17N southward moving
westward 10 knots. The GFS model for 700 mb shows an inverted
trough that extends from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico, southeastward into Central America. The 89W/90W tropical
wave is just to the east of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. Precipitation: numerous strong between 90W and
98W, mostly in Mexico, and in the westernmost sections of
Guatemala. Scattered to numerous strong is in El Salvador, and
in parts of southwestern Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W, to 08N18W and 08N24W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N24W, to 07N32W and 07N38W, and along 06N from
40W to 47W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered
moderate and isolated strong is within 240 nm of the coast of
Africa from 20W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 11N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through SE Louisiana, into the north central
Gulf of Mexico, curving southwestward to the coast of Mexico
near 24N98W. The GFE model for 700 mb shows the base of a trough
that reaches the Gulf coast border areas of Mississippi and
Alabama. Precipitation: isolated moderate is near 22N96W, about
120 nm to the south of the cold front. Broad upper level
anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.

The GFS model for 700 mb shows an inverted trough that extends
from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico,
southeastward into Central America. The 89W/90W tropical wave is
just to the east of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Precipitation: numerous strong between 90W and 98W,
mostly in Mexico, and in the westernmost sections of Guatemala.
Scattered to numerous strong is in El Salvador, and in parts of
southwestern Honduras.

An Atlantic Ocean stationary front continues northwestward, from
22N70W, across the Bahamas, to 29N79W. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong is in the Bahamas from Cuba to 26N
between the stationary front and 83W in the Gulf of Mexico.

Weak high pressure ridge extends from N Florida, WSW, to the
central Gulf of Mexico. The weak high pressure will maintain
moderate to fresh southerly winds, the highest in the western
parts of the Gulf, during most of the week. A cold front has
exited the Texas coast this afternoon. The cold front
will reach a line from the Florida Panhandle to the SW Gulf on
Thursday night. The front will stall,
and then dissipate gradually, from the Florida Big Bend to
western Bay of Campeche, from late Friday through Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the entire Caribbean
Sea. The GFS model for 250 mb shows a cyclonic circulation
center in the area that is between Haiti, Cuba, and Jamaica.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is centered
near the Gonave Island of Haiti. Isolated moderate is between
the archipelago Jardines de la Reina and the Caribbean Sea side
of SE Cuba.

Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate
rainshowers are to the south of the line that runs from 19N62W
17N70W to the NE coast of Nicaragua.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 74W in Colombia beyond
central Costa Rica.

Generally moderate trade winds will prevail across most of the
basin through Saturday, as weak high pressure prevails across
the western Atlantic Ocean. A pulse of fresh to locally strong
winds is
expected in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. A weak tropical wave
will pass to the south of Hispaniola today, and then to the
south of Jamaica on Thursday night. Fresh to strong trade winds
will return to the eastern and central sections of the basin,
from Saturday night through Monday, as high pressure
builds across the western Atlantic Ocean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N49W, to 28N50W, 22N60W
22N70W. The stationary front continues northwestward, across the
Bahamas, to 29N79W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is within 180 nm to the SSE of the front from 23N
northward, and within 150 nm to the NNW of the front from 23N
northward. Similar precipitation is within 120 nm to the north
of the front and within 60 nm to the south of the front,
elsewhere, from 70W eastward. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is in the Bahamas from Cuba to 26N between the
stationary front and 83W in the Gulf of Mexico.

A 1012 mb low pressure center that is to the E of Bermuda near
33N53W will remain nearly stationary
and weaken through Wednesday. The low pressure center will begin
to drift W through the end of
the week. The stationary front gradually will dissipate into the
weekend. High pressure will build in behind the front, and it
will be the dominant weather feature into the weekend.

$$
mt
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