[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091633
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W south of 13N moving
W at 10 to 15 kts. To the north and west of this tropical wave a
large plume of Saharan dust exists. Isolated moderate convection
is within 120 nm of the wave axis S of 6N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W south of 12N,
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is
from 11N-03S between 45W-52W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave along 63W/64W south of 16N is
moving W at 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is
mostly inland over Venezuela from 00N-12N between 56W-67W

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends southwest of
Jamaica along 81W, south of 16N to western Panama, and is moving
W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over
the SW Caribbean S of 10N to include Panama and Costa Rica. This
convection is also due to the eastern extent of the Eastern
Pacific monsoon trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 05N24W. The ITCZ continues from 05N24W to 05N30W. The ITCZ
resumes W of a tropical wave from 05N34W to 05N48W. Besides the
convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, widely
scattered moderate convection is from 01N-10N between 10W-24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure is building in from the east. Radar imagery shows
scattered showers over the NE Gulf of Mexico to include north
and central Florida. Moderate southerly winds and seas of 3 to 6
ft prevail.

Weak high pressure building in from the east will lead to
moderate to fresh southerly winds, highest in the western Gulf,
most of the week. A cold front will enter the northern Gulf Thu,
then stretch from the Florida Panhandle to the SW Gulf Thu
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section,
Scattered showers are over the Windward Passage, W Haiti, and S
of Cuba. Fresh to strong SE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are
ongoing across the Gulf of Honduras, with fresh winds and seas
of 5 to 7 ft also occurring N of Colombia. Elsewhere moderate
trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas persist.

Generally moderate trade winds will prevail across most of the
basin through the weekend as weak high pressure prevails across
the W Atlantic. Pulses of fresh to strong winds are expected
across the Gulf of Honduras for the next several nights.
Fresh to locally strong winds are briefly expected late tonight
offshore Colombia and western Venezuela. A tropical wave will
pass south of Puerto Rico late today, south of Hispaniola Wed,
then south of Jamaica Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1010 mb low is over the W Atlantic near 30N56W. A cold front
extends SW to 29N54W to 24N60W to 26N70W. A stationary front
continues to 31N76W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90
nm of the front. A 1030 mb high is over the E Atlantic near the
Azores at 40N30W.

The W Atlantic front will sag slowly south and east through
tonight, then stall from north of the Antilles and across the
Bahamas Wed into Thu. High pressure will build in behind the
front and be the dominant weather feature through late week.

$$
Formosa
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