[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091007
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
607 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W south of 13N moving
W at 10 to 15 kts. To the north and west of this tropical wave a
large plume of Saharan dust exists. No significant convection is
active near the wave axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W south of 12N, moving
W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers are from 05N-11N between 45W-
50W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave along 63W south of 18N has just
passed the Lesser Antilles and is moving W at 10 kt. Shower
activity associated with this wave has diminished.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends southwest of
Jamaica along 80W, south of 18N to central Panama, and is moving
W at 5 to 10 kt. This weak wave is accompanied by significant dry
air and has no convection.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Gambia and Senegal
near 11N16W to 07N25W. The ITCZ continues from 07N21W to 03N49W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection south of the
monsoon trough off the coasts of Sierra Leone and Liberia from
09N-17N between 08W-19W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 120 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 22W-47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure building in from the east is creating dry conditions
through the Gulf. Moderate southerly winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft
prevail.

Weak high pressure building in from the east will lead to
moderate to fresh southerly winds, highest in the western Gulf,
most of the week. A cold front will enter the northern Gulf Thu,
then stretch from the Florida Panhandle to the SW Gulf Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convection that had been near the border of Colombia and Panama
has moved farther inland and is no longer affecting coastal
waters. High pressure is suppressing all convection across the
Caribbean with the exception of some early morning landbreeze
showers and thunderstorms between Cuba and Jamaica. Fresh to
strong SE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are ongoing across the Gulf
of Honduras, with fresh winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft also occurring
N of Colombia. Elsewhere moderate trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
persist.

Generally moderate trade winds will prevail through
the weekend. Pulses of fresh to strong winds are expected the the
Gulf of Honduras for the next several nights, with a pulse of
fresh to locally strong winds possible late tonight offshore
Colombia and western Venezuela. A tropical wave will pass south of
Puerto Rico late today, south of Hispaniola Wed, then south of
Jamaica Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Low pressure has formed E of Bermuda near 30N58W of 1010 mb along
a cold front that extends SW to 25N67W then NW to 31N76W.
Scattered moderate convection is along this front to the E of 66W.
 Moderate to fresh SW winds and seas to 8 ft are noted in this
same area. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 28N57W to
23N63W. Elsewhere west of 50W, gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas
are observed.

For the forecast, the low pressure E of Bermuda will drift NE and
gradually weaken into late week. The front will sag south and
east through tonight, then stall north of the Antilles and over
the Bahamas Wed into Thu. High pressure will build in behind the
front and be the dominant weather feature through late week.

Farther east, broad ridging dominates the eastern Atlantic, anchored
by a 1029 mb high over the Azores near 40N30W.

$$
KONARIK
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