[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082256
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2256 UTC Mon Jun 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 2200  UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Cristobal is well inland near near 34.0N
92.0W at 08/2100 UTC or 100 nm north of Monroe Louisiana moving
N at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Buoy and CMAN
observation platforms indicate fresh to strong southerly winds
are still active in the Mississippi Sound and at the entrance to
Mobile Bay. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted elsewhere
over the Louisiana and Alabama coastal waters with gusts to near
gale force and seas to seven feet. No significant shower or
thunderstorm activity associated with Cristobal is noted over the
Gulf any longer, although scattered thunderstorms are noted
inland from the Sabine Pass through central Mississippi and
Alabama. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W south of 15N moving
W around 15-20 kt to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. To
the north and west of this tropical wave a large plume of
Saharan dust exists. No significant convection is active near the
wave axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W south of 12N,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-10N
between 42W-45W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near the Leeward and Windward
Islands to northeast Venezuela, moving W at 10 kt. The previous
soundings from Barbados showed a wind shift indicative of the
wave passing through the region. This wave and interaction with
an upper level trough in the eastern Caribbean is inducing
scattered moderate convection mostly over the Windward Islands.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends between Jamaica and
eastern Panama, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. This weak wave is
accompanied by significant dry air and has no convection.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Gambia and Senegal
near 13N16W to 10N20W. Segments of the intertropical convergence
zone extend from 10N20W to 03N25W, from 03N31W to 05N45W, and
from 05N48W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 00N to 03N between 30W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for more details
on Tropical Depression Cristobal.

Outside of the immediate area of impact from Cristobal, the only
significant thunderstorm activity is inland over Florida.
Moderate to locally fresh S winds prevail across the majority of
the Gulf, with seas generally from 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to subside across
the N and NE Gulf through tonight as the remnants of Cristobal
continue to lift northward and inland. Weak high pressure will
continue to build west across the Gulf early this week and
persist through the latter part of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are likely ongoing
across the far northwest Caribbean, between high pressure north
of the area and lower pressure to the west. Fresh to strong trade
winds are likely in a small area off the coast of northeast
Colombia. Elsewhere moderate trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
persist. Upper divergence between an upper anticyclone over the
northwest Caribbean and a broad upper trough in the northeast
Caribbean are supporting scattered thunderstorms across the
higher terrain of eastern Cuba, Jamaica and southern Hispaniola,
but little of this appears to be impacting adjacent waters at
this time. No significant thunderstorm activity is noted
elsewhere across the Caribbean.

For the forecast, the weak ridging north of the area will
maintain moderate mainly moderate tradewinds across the basin
into the weekend. Nightly pulses of fresh to strong winds are
expected across the Gulf of Honduras. The tropical wave moving
across the Lesser Antilles will pass south of Puerto Rico Tue
through Tue night, reach 70W on Wed, then enter the western
Caribbean by the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the western Atlantic from 31N60W to 27N65W
to 31N75W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 28N to
32N between 59W and 61W. Fresh to strong SW winds and seas to 8
ft are noted in this same area. Elsewhere west of 50W, gentle
breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are observed.

For the forecast, the front will cross waters east of the
Bahamas Tue, then gradually dissipate by mid-week. Low pressure
along the front will form est of Bermuda Tue through Wed. Expect
fresh to strong W to SW winds along and ahead of the front
through this evening. High pressure will build in behind the
front and be the dominant weather feature into late week.

Farther east, broad ridging dominates the eastern Atlantic,
anchored by a 1029 mb high over the Azores near 40N30W.

$$
Christensen
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