[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071006
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
606 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Cristobal is centered near 27.3N 90.1W at 07/0900
UTC, or 140 nm SSW of the mouth of the Mississippi River, move N
at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. A band of
strong thunderstorms is displaced well north of the center of
Cristobal, stretching from southeast Louisiana to the eastern
Florida Panhandle. Another band of scattered thunderstorms is well
east of the storm center, within about 150 nm off the west coast
of the Florida Peninsula. New convection is developing close to
the center, on its east and southern side, in the central Gulf of
Mexico. Elsewhere, dry air intrusion is keeping much of the
remainder of the Gulf rain-free. Seas of 12 ft or greater are
located within 330 nm E semicircle, 180 nm SW quadrant, and 210 nm
NW quadrant with seas to 22 ft over portions of the central Gulf
of Mexico. Cristobal is expected to continue moving north today,
then gradually turn to the north-northwest late today or tonight.
On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal will reach the
northern Gulf of Mexico coast later today, then move inland across
Louisiana this evening through Monday morning, and northward
across Arkansas and Missouri Monday afternoon into Tuesday.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml,
and the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave as emerged off Africa and is
located along 20N south of 14N, moving west around 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is located within about 180 nm
behind this wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W south of 15N, moving
west at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is associated with
this wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W south of 17N, moving
west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection has developed
along its axis, mainly south of 10N.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W south of 18N,
moving west around 15-20 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near
12N16W to 06N23W. The ITCZ extends from 06N23W to 04N45W.
Scattered moderate convection is located within 90 nm on either
side of both features.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for more details on
Tropical Storm Cristobal.

Cristobal will move to 28.7N 90.3W this afternoon, be inland at
30.8N 91.2W Mon morning, then weaken to a tropical depression over
Louisiana or Arkansas Mon afternoon. Winds and seas will subside
Mon and Mon night, then weak high pressures builds in from the
east into mid-week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The line of thunderstorms that had been in the far SW Caribbean
overnight has moved inland over central America. A 1012 mb low
pressure is located near 10N80W. Scattered thunderstorms are just
off the coast of Costa Rica. Fresh trades continue over much of
the central and western Caribbean. Seas range 6 to 8 ft across
most of the basin.

Fresh SE winds and seas around 8 ft in the Yucatan
Channel will continue to diminish this morning as Tropical Storm
Cristobal moves farther from the area. With weak high pressure
centered north of the area, trade winds will dominate the
Carribbean this week. Fresh SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will
pulse to strong Mon and Tue nights. Fresh winds will also prevail
off the coasts of Colombia and western Venezuela early this week,
with moderate easterly winds elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad high pressure is dominating much of the central and western
Atlantic early this morning. There is a weak surface trough from
20N to 30N along 55W, where scattered showers have developed.
Generally moderate trades prevail with seas averaging 5 to 7 ft.

As Tropical Storm Cristobal moves toward the central U.S. Gulf
Coast today, the prolonged stretch of abundant moisture pouring NE
across FL and into areas N of the Bahamas will finally diminish
as weak high pressure builds into the area. A weak cold front will
move south of Bermuda tonight, then slide E to the N and E of the
Bahamas through Tue. Ahead of the front, fresh to strong W to SW
winds are possible, mainly N of 25N and E of 70W. Weak low
pressure may form early in the week to the SE or E of Bermuda
along this frontal boundary.

$$
KONARIK
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