[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062250
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
650 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Cristobal is centered near 25.2N 90.2W at 06/2100
UTC, or 240 nm SSW of the mouth of The Mississippi River, moving
N at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. A band of
strong thunderstorms is displaced well east of the storm center,
and it extends from near Tampa, Florida across the western tip of
Cuba to the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, the intrusion of dry air is
limiting inner core convective activity. Seas 12 ft or greater
are located within 315 nm E semicircle, 120 nm SW and 210 nm NW
quadrants with seas to 26 ft over the central Gulf of Mexico.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml,
and the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Note that the threat of additional heavy rainfall over southern
Mexico and Central America has diminished, as Tropical Storm
Cristobal continues moving away from the region. A return to a
more climatological monsoon trough pattern and rainfall regime is
expected across Central America and southern Mexico this week.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W south of 16N, moving
west around 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with
this wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W south of 18N, moving
west around 10-15 kt. No significant oceanic convection is noted
with this wave.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W south of 18N,
moving west around 15 kt. No significant convection is associated
with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Sierra Leone near
09N13W to 04N20W to 06N33W. The ITCZ extends from 06N41W to the
coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough
between 18W and 30W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
within 90 nm of the ITCZ west of 48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for more details on
Tropical Storm Cristobal.

Cristobal will move northward over the central Gulf of Mexico
tonight, and will be near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast on
Sun. Cristobal's center is then forecast to move inland across
Louisiana late Sun through Mon morning. Tropical-storm-force winds
and very large, rough seas will produce dangerous marine
conditions across the offshore waters through Sun night. Winds and
seas will gradually subside on Mon as Cristobal moves inland.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An outer convective band associated with Tropical Storm Cristobal
extends across the western tip of Cuba into the NW Caribbean.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring over the SW Caribbean
off the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Isolated thunderstorms
are located near Puerto Rico and west of the Windward Islands.

Fresh to strong SE to S winds are noted in earlier scatterometer
data over much of the western Caribbean. Recent altimeter data
indicates seas are 8-12 ft in this region. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh trades prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean,
with locally strong winds near the northern coast of Colombia.

Fresh to strong SE to S winds and seas to 12 ft in the NW
Caribbean associated with Tropical Storm Cristobal will gradually
diminish through Sun morning. Fresh to strong winds will prevail
in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed night. Over the south-central
Caribbean, fresh to locally strong winds will continue through
Mon night. A pair of tropical waves will move across eastern
Caribbean through early next week, bringing a few additional
showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, widespread showers and
thunderstorms will continue in far NW Caribbean through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad surface high pressure extends across much of the central and
western Atlantic Ocean this evening, with a couple of weak
surface troughs analyzed along 56W and 65W. Neither feature is
associated with notable convection. Earlier scatterometer data
indicated light to moderate trades prevail across much of the
Atlantic forecast waters, with perhaps some locally fresh winds
north of the ITCZ. Seas are less than 8 ft across the discussion
area.

Abundant tropical moisture spreading NE from the NW Caribbean and
Tropical Storm Cristobal will continue to support scattered
showers and thunderstorms over Florida adjacent waters and to the
north of the Bahamas through early Monday. Early next week, a weak
cold front will approach the northern waters before stalling and
dissipating by the middle of the week. Otherwise, high pressure
will support fresh trade winds, highest to the north of Hispaniola
this weekend.

$$
B Reinhart
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