[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052334
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Cristobal is near 21.4N 89.7W at
05/2100 UTC. Cristobal is moving N at 12 kt. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots.
Numerous moderate scattered strong convection prevails 20N-25N
from 83W-90W.

On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal will move over
the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and be near the northern
Gulf of Mexico coast on Sunday.  Cristobal's center is then
forecast to move inland across Louisiana late Sunday and Monday.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Weakening will begin once Cristobal moves inland late Sunday and
Monday.

Damaging and deadly flooding has been occurring in portions of
Mexico and Central America.  Cristobal is expected to produce
additional extreme rainfall amounts through tomorrow. This
rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office
for more information.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest
Cristobal NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...

A Central American Gyre remains centered over southern Mexico
and northern Central America, with the broad cyclonic
circulation around the gyre encompassing the discussion waters
north of 10N and east of 100W. The gyre is characterized by a
northward displacement of the monsoon trough over Central
America, and associated deep convection is usually found south
of the trough axis.

Cristobal, now a tropical storm centered on the Yucatan
peninsula coast, remains embedded within the larger circulation
of the gyre, and will continue to produce additional heavy
rainfall over portions of southeastern Mexico and northern
Central America through tomorrow. The heaviest additional
rainfall is expected over the southeastern Mexican provinces of
Chiapas, Yucatan, and Quintana Roo as well as portion of
Guatemala and Belize. This rainfall can cause widespread life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from
your local weather office for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis near 34W and from 16N
equatorward is moving west at 15 kt. A trough in the surface
winds was noted in the scatterometer winds in association with
this tropical wave. No significant deep convection is occurring
in association with this wave.

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis near 48W and from 19N
equatorward is moving west at 15 kt. No significant surface
component of this wave could be observed, as it is primarily
monitored by 700 mb flow.  No significant deep convection is
occurring in association with this wave.

A Caribbean tropical wave with axis near 61W and from 18N
equatorward is moving west at 10-15 kt. No significant surface
component of this wave could be observed, as it is primarily
monitored by 700 mb flow. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 10N-15N between 55W-61W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Africa
from 12N16W to 04N25W. The ITCZ extends from 04N25W to 04N31W,
then resumes west of a tropical wave from 04N36W to 03N46W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 04N-
06N between 35W-42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Tropical Storm Cristobal.

Weak surface ridging extends from the Atlantic across Florida to
29N85W. Elsewhere across the Gulf, the very large circulation of
Tropical Storm Cristobal covers the remainder of the Gulf.  Away
from Cristobal, no other deep convection is occurring over the
Gulf.

Cristobal will move to 22.9N 90.0W Sat morning, 24.9N 90.1W Sat
afternoon, 26.7N 90.1W Sun morning, 28.5N 90.4W Sun afternoon,
inland to 30.4N 91.1W Mon morning, and move inland and weaken to
a tropical depression near 32.8N 92.2W Mon afternoon. Cristobal
will move inland near 39.5N 91.0W Tue afternoon. Once Cristobal
moves inland, moderate to fresh southerly flow will be present
across most of the north-central Gulf waters through late Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
heavy rainfall event occurring over Central America.

A part of the monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia
along and north of 10N then across Central America. Scattered
moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the monsoon
trough south of 13N and west of 78W.

A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American
Gyre, will persist over northern Central America and southern
Mexico for several days, producing widespread showers and
thunderstorms in far NW Caribbean into the weekend. Gale force
SE to S winds and building seas are in the NW Caribbean and will
continue through Sat morning. However, strong winds will prevail
through the evening hours. Fresh to strong trade winds will
continue in the central Caribbean through Sat night. Otherwise,
a tropical wave will support scattered showers this weekend in
the SE basin and Windward Islands.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Ridging extends from the 1026 mb Bermuda High at 34N54W to NE
Florida at 30N81W.  Easterly trades south of the ridge are
generally gentle to moderate breeze due to a weak N-S pressure
gradient.  Farther northeast, a 1010 mb occluded low is centered
near 32N20W, with scattered moderate convection north of 30N
between 17W-22W.  A weak surface trough extends from 28N77W near
the NW Bahamas to S Florida.  Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is occurring from 25N-28N between 77W-82W.

Abundant moisture pouring NE from the Central American Gyre and
Tropical Storm Cristobal continue to support scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms across portions of Florida and the
Bahamas. These showers will persist to early next week as
Cristobal moves towards the north-central Gulf of Mexico.
Otherwise, high pressure will support fresh trade winds, mainly
north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, through the weekend.

$$

Landsea
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