[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051013
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
613 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression Cristobal is near 18.8N 90.1W at
05/0900 UTC. This position is inland, about 80 nm/130 km SSE of
Campeche, Mexico. Cristobal is moving NNE, 20 degrees, at 6 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Precipitation:
numerous strong convection is noted within 180 nm of center in the
NE semicircle, from northern Belize across most of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is
also located within 540 nm SE semicircle, including much of
Guatemala, southern Belize, Honduras, the Cayman Islands, and the
northwest Caribbean. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
also extends within 600 nm NE quadrant, including western Cuba and
portions of the SE Gulf of Mexico. Damaging and deadly flooding
will continue to occur over portions of Mexico and Central
America. Storm total rainfall amounts over southern Guatemala,
coastal Chiapas, and El Salvador may reach 35 inches. Widespread
life threatening flooding and mudslides may persist into the
weekend. Please read bulletins and forecasts that are issued by
your local or national meteorological service, for more details.

Cristobal is expected to emerge into the waters of the southern
Gulf of Mexico late today, then move north through the central and
northern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. The risk of tropical storm
force winds and dangerous storm surge from Louisiana to the
Florida Panhandle will exist well in advance of when Cristobal's
center approaches the U.S. Gulf Coast late Sunday. It is likely
that storm surge and tropical storm watches will be issued for a
part of the U.S.A. coast of the Gulf of Mexico later today.

Heavy rainfall will spread into parts of the U.S.A. coast of the
Gulf of Mexico, from east Texas to Florida, from this weekend into
early next week, with areas of flash flooding possible.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
and the latest Cristobal NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public
Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...

Tropical Depression Cristobal is part of a larger Central
American Gyre (CAG) circulation. Heavy rainfall and severe
flooding have been impacting parts of Central America and southern
Mexico all of this week. Abundant tropical moisture in a
southwesterly wind flow will continue to impact SE Mexico and
northern parts of Central America. Additional rainfall amounts of
8 to 12 inches are forecast over southern Guatemala and coastal
Chiapas, with 4 to 8 inches expected in Campeche, Quintana Roo,
Yucatan, and El Salvador.

Please read bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your local
or national meteorological service, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A weak tropical wave is along 29W, from 17N southward, moving W at
10 kt. Little convection is associated with this wave.

A tropical wave is along 39N, from 16N south, moving W at 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is located within 300 nm ahead of
this wave, S of 10N.

A tropical wave is along 59W, from 16N south, moving W at 10 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within
300 nm of either side of the wave axis S of 12N.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 06N17W and 05N24W. The ITCZ is along 03N40W to
05N46W to 08N50W to 09N54W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
thunderstorms are located along the ITCZ between 42W and 47W.
Scattered moderate showers are located between the equator and the
monsoon trough from 10W to 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Tropical Depression Cristobal.

Elsewhere in the Gulf, scattered moderate showers exist over the
eastern and northeastern Gulf, mainly within 210 nm offshore
coast of Florida. A surface ridge is along 28N80W in Florida,
across the northern part of the Gulf of Mexico, into the upper
Texas Gulf coast.

Tropical Depression Cristobal is inland near 18.8N 90.1W 1000 mb
at 5 AM EDT moving NNE at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt
gusts 40 kt. Cristobal will remain inland and reach 20.1N 90.1W
this afternoon, move into the Gulf and strengthen to a tropical
storm near 22.0N 90.3W Sat morning, then reach 23.8N 90.4W Sat
afternoon, 25.7N 90.3W Sun morning, 27.6N 90.4W Sun afternoon, and
inland to 29.6N 91.2W Mon morning. Cristobal will weaken to a
tropical depression while moving inland over Louisiana early Tue.
Once Cristobal moves inland, moderate to fresh southerly flow will
be present across most of the Gulf waters through Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
heavy rainfall situation for Central America.

One part of the monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia
near 08N74W, across the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, through
central Nicaragua, into central Honduras. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are located within about 180 nm offshore the coast
of Central America

Otherwise, high pressure is dominating the Caribbean with
scattered moderate showers across the basin moving quickly west in
fresh to strong trades.

A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central
American Gyre, will persist over northern Central America and
southern Mexico for several days, producing widespread showers
and thunderstorms in far NW Caribbean into the weekend. Strong to
near gale force SE winds and building seas will continue in the
Gulf of Honduras and east of Yucatan through Sat evening. Fresh
to strong trade winds will continue in the central Caribbean
through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front is located from 31N50W to 25N60W to
27N65W. The few showers that were associated with this front have
diminished.

A weak surface trough from 32N20W to 25N35W is producing little in
the way of precipitation this morning.

The stationary front will evolve into a surface trough today, and
dissipate tonight.Abundant moisture pouring NE from the Central
American Gyre and Tropical Depression Cristobal continue to
support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across
portions of Florida and the NW Bahamas. These showers will persist
to early next week as Cristobal moves towards the north- central
Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, high pressure north of the front will
support fresh trade winds, mainly north of Hispaniola and Puerto
Rico, through the weekend.

$$
KONARIK
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