[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042219
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2300 UTC Thu Jun 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression Storm Cristobal is near 17.5N
90.8W at 04/2100 UTC, moving east-southeast at 3 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Some
additional weakening is possible overnight. Re-intensification
is expected to begin late Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Cristobal will move over extreme northwestern Guatemala
and eastern Mexico tonight and Friday. The center is forecast to
move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico late Friday, over the
central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and approach the northern
Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday and Sunday night.

Currently, numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is
noted over the Yucatan Peninsula. Similar convection is also seen
in a band extending between San Andres Island and the coastal
plains of Nicaragua, all the way to the NW to Cancun, Mexico.
Scattered moderate convection is observed over portions of
Guatemala, Belize, Honduras and El Salvador.

Damaging and deadly flooding has already been occurring in portions
of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce
additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week.
The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern
Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. This rainfall
could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for
more information.

There is a risk of tropical storm force winds this weekend from
Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle and a risk of
dangerous storm surge from Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend.
These hazards, along with heavy rainfall, will arrive well in
advance of and extend well east of Cristobal’s center.
Interests along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Cristobal. A tropical storm watch and a
storm surge watch may be required for a portion of the area
tonight or Friday.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest
Cristobal NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...

Tropical Depression Cristobal is part of a larger Central
American Gyre circulation (CAG). Heavy rainfall and severe
flooding have been impacting parts of Central America and
southern Mexico during the last several days. Abundant tropical
moisture in a southwesterly wind flow will continue to impact SE
Mexico and northern Central America. More heavy rain are
expected in the Mexican states of Campeche, Quinatan Roo and
Yucatan, as well as over El Salvador, with additional 5 to 10
inches of rain. Additional 2-4 inches are expected in Belize and
the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz and Oaxaca through
Saturday.

Please read bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your
local or national meteorological service, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave with axis along 37W and from 18N southward, is
moving W at 15 kt. Isolated showers are noted where the wave axis
meets the ITCZ.

A second tropical wave is analyzed along57W and from 17N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are near the
wave axis, mainly S of 12N to the coast of South America.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 04N34W,
then resumes west of a tropical wave from 05N40W to 05N52W.
Scattered moderate convection can be found N of the ITCZ from 04N
to 08N between 25W-32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Tropical Depression Cristobal.

The pressure gradient between Cristobal and a ridge over the Gulf
of Mexico supports an area of fresh to strong easterly winds
across the southern Gulf, mainly S of 23N with seas of 8-10 ft
roughly between 87W and 93W. As Cristobal moves back into the
Gulf waters by late Fri, winds and seas will continue to
increase across the Gulf region. The large circulation of
Cristobal is forecast to dominate most of the Gulf region with
the strongest winds and highest seas over the eastern semicircle.

Diurnal heating, combined with a SE wind flow along the western
periphery of the Bermuda high, and a diffuent pattern aloft
continues to support shower and thunderstorms over most of the
Florida Peninsula. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
will again be possible over South Florida on Friday along with
heavy rainfall. A Flood Watch is in effect for South Florida
through Fri morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
heavy rainfall event occurring over Central America.

A part of the monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia
along and north of 10N then across Central America. Scattered
moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the monsoon
trough south of 17N and west of 77W. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh easterly winds prevailing across the basin.

The Central American Gyre will persist over northern Central
America and southern Mexico for several days, producing
widespread showers and thunderstorms in the NW Caribbean through
Sat. Strong SE winds and building seas will continue in the Gulf
of Honduras and east of Yucatan through Sat evening. Winds may
reach gale force near the Yucatan Channel Fri through Sat. Fresh
to strong trade winds will continue in the central Caribbean
through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Scattered moderate convection prevails across the west Atlantic
west of 75W supported by a diffluent flow aloft. A western
Atlantic stationary front passes through 31N48W to 23N56W to
27N70W with no significant convection. Surface ridging prevails
across the remainder of the basin.

Abundant moisture inflow from the CAG and Tropical Depression
Cristobal continue to support scattered showers across portions
of Florida and offshore waters N of the Bahamas. These showers
will persist to early next week. High pressure north of the
front will support moderate to fresh trade winds, mainly north
of Hispaniola, through Sat.

$$
GR

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