[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041030 RRA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
605 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Cristobal is near 17.9N 91.3W at
04/0900 UTC. This position also is about 60 miles/95 km to the
southeast of Ciudad del Carmen in Mexico. Cristobal is moving
southeast at 2 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is
998 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with
gusts to 45 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
is within 200 E and NE of the center. Scattered moderate to
strong is within 180 to 240 nm of the center in the SE and SW
quadrants. Gradual weakening is expected during the next day or
so, while the center moves slowly inland in eastern Mexico.
Cristobal is expected to emerge in the south central Gulf of
Mexico on Friday, and some re-intensification is forecast to
occur, as Cristobal moves northward to the northern Gulf coast.

Damaging and deadly flooding already has occurred in parts of
Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce
additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week.
The heaviest additional rainfall is expected in far southern
Mexico, in parts of the Yucatan Peninsula, and elsewhere in
Mexico along the Pacific Ocean coast from Chiapas to Guatemala
and El Salvador. It is possible that this rainfall may cause
widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Tropical storm conditions will continue along and near the coast
of Mexico this morning, in the western part of Campeche, in the
eastern part of Tabasco, and in the northern part of Chiapas.

Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge in the southern Gulf of
Mexico on Friday, and move northward into the central and
northern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.  There is a risk of
storm surge, heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning during
the weekend along parts of the U.S.A. Gulf Coast from Texas to
the Florida Panhandle. Please monitor the progress of Cristobal,
and make sure to have a hurricane plan in place.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest
Cristobal NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Cristobal is part of a larger Central American
Gyre circulation (CAG). Heavy rainfall and severe flooding have
been impacting parts of Central America and southern Mexico
during the last several days. Additional heavy rainfall is
expected through Friday night. Abundant tropical moisture in a
southwesterly wind flow will continue to impact SE Mexico and
northern Central America. More heavy rain are expected in El
Salvador, with additional 10 to 15 inches of rain, mainly from
This afternoon through early Saturday. It is possible that
Belize and Honduras may receive 3 to 6 inches of rain. It is
possible that the rainfall in all of these areas may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Please read bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your
local or national meteorological service, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W/34W, from 18N
southward, moving W at 15 knots. Precipitation: from 11N
southward...isolated moderate is within 180 nm east of the
tropical wave, and within 300 nm west of the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/56W, from 17N
southward, moving W at 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered
moderate is within 200 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 09N13W, to 06N15W and 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from
03N22W to 03N32W. The ITCZ also is along 05N35W to 04N45W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 02N to 08N
from 30W eastward. Isolated moderate rain showers are from 04N
to 11N between 40W and 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Tropical Storm Cristobal.

Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds, and widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rain showers cover the rest of the
Gulf of Mexico, except within 300 nm of the coast of Texas. The
clouds and precipitation are related to moisture that is around
the periphery of the circulation of T.S. Cristobal.

Tropical Storm Cristobal inland near 17.9N 91.3W 998 mb at 5 AM
EDT moving SE at 2 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45
kt. Cristobal will remain over land and weaken to a tropical
depression near 18.0N 91.0W this afternoon, re-intensify to a
tropical storm near 20.2N 90.4W Fri afternoon, and move
northward Sat and Sun in the central Gulf. Strong winds and high
seas are expected east of the storm center. Once Cristobal moves
inland, moderate to fresh southerly flow will be present across
most of the Gulf waters through Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
heavy rainfall situation for Central America.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow associated with T.S.
CRISTOBAL, that is inland in southern Mexico, covers the
Caribbean Sea from 70W westward. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 14N northward from 70W
westward in general.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean
Sea, from 70W eastward. The base of an upper level western
Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough is reaching the eastern
half of the coast of Venezuela. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 70W eastward.

A part of the monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia in
the part that is to the north of 10N, across the SW corner of
the Caribbean Sea, to north central Nicaragua. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the area from
15N southward and 78W westward.

A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American
Gyre, will persist over northern Central America and southern
Mexico for several days, producing widespread showers and
thunderstorms in the NW Caribbean through Saturday. Strong SE
winds and building seas will continue in the Gulf of Honduras
and east of Yucatan through Saturday evening. Winds may reach
gale force near the Yucatan Channel Friday through Saturday.
Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the central
Caribbean through Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic Ocean stationary front passes through 32N48W,
to 25N60W, to 25N76W.  Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is within 150 nm north of the front between 58W
and 70W. Isolated moderate is within 200 nm to the south of the
front from 70W eastward.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean dissipating cold front passes through
32N11W, to 24N26W, 23N33W, to 27N43W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is to the north of the stationary front.

The current stationary front, that is along 25N to the east of
the Bahamas, will dissipate slowly today. High pressure to the
north of the front will support moderate to fresh trade winds,
mainly to the north of Hispaniola, through Saturday.

$$
mt/dbm
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