[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040608
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Thu Jun 04 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Cristobal is near 18.0N 91.5W at
04/0600 UTC. This position also is about 45 miles/70 km to the
south-southeast of Ciudad del Carmen in Mexico. Cristobal is
moving southeast at 3 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 997 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35
knots with gusts to 45 knots. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is within 200 nm of the center in the E
quadrant. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
within 240 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, and within 180
nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Gradual weakening is
expected during the next day or so, while the center moves
slowly inland in eastern Mexico.  Cristobal is expected to
emerge in the south central Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and some
re-intensification is forecast to occur, while Cristobal moves
northward toward the northern Gulf coast.

Damaging and deadly flooding already has occurred in parts of
Mexico and Central America.  Cristobal is expected to produce
additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week.
The heaviest additional rainfall is expected in far southern
Mexico, in parts of the Yucatan Peninsula, and elsewhere in
Mexico along the Pacific Ocean coast from Chiapas to Guatemala
and El Salvador. It is possible that this rainfall may cause
widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Tropical storm conditions will continue along and near the coast
of Mexico through Thursday morning, especially in the western
part of Campeche, in the eastern part of Tabasco, and in the
northern part of Chiapas.

Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge in the southern Gulf of
Mexico on Friday, and move northward into the central and
northern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.  There is a risk of
storm surge, heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning during
the weekend along parts of the U.S.A. Gulf Coast from Texas to
the Florida Panhandle.  Please monitor the progress of
Cristobal, and make sure to have a  hurricane plan in place.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest
Cristobal NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Cristobal is part of a larger Central American
Gyre circulation (CAG). Heavy rainfall and severe flooding have
been impacting parts of Central America and southern Mexico
during the last several days. Additional heavy rainfall is
expected through Friday night. Abundant tropical moisture in a
southwesterly wind flow will continue to impact SE Mexico and
northern Central America, at the same time as Cristobal has been
interacting with the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough.
Rounds of heavy rain are expected in El Salvador, with
additional 10 to 15 inches of rain, mainly from Thursday
afternoon through early Saturday. It is possible that Belize and
Honduras may receive 3 to 6 inches of rain. It is possible that
the rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

Please read bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your
local or national meteorological service, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/33W, from 18N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: from 11N
southward...isolated moderate to locally strong is within 160 nm
to the east of the tropical wave, and within 300 nm to the west
of the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W, from 17N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is within 200 nm to the west of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 09N13W, to 06N15W and 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from
03N23W to 03N31W. The ITCZ also is along 05N34W 04N44W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 02N to 08N from 30W eastward. Other isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 04N to 11N between 40W and 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Tropical Storm Cristobal.

Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the rest of the
Gulf of Mexico, except within 300 nm of the coast of Texas.
Similar clouds and precipitation cover the Atlantic Ocean from
76W westward. The clouds and precipitation are related to
moisture that is around the periphery of the circulation of T.S.
Cristobal.

Tropical Storm Cristobal inland near 18.3N 91.8W 995mb at 11 PM
EDT nearly stationary. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50
kt. Cristobal will remain inland near 18.0N 91.4W Thu morning,
weaken to a tropical depression near 18.4N 90.9W Thu evening,
then strengthen to a tropical storm near 21.3N 90.5W Fri
evening, and move northward Sat and Sun in the central Gulf of
Mexico. Strong winds and high seas are expected east of the
storm center. Moderate to fresh southerly wind flow will be
present across most of the Gulf waters through Monday night,
once Cristobal moves inland.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
heavy rainfall situation for Central America.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is spinning away from the
area that is around T.S. CRISTOBAL, that is inland in Mexico,
off the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W
westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 14N northward from 70W westward in general.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean
Sea, from 70W eastward. The base of the upper level western
Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough is reaching the eastern
half of the coast of Venezuela. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 70W eastward.

One part of the monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia in
the part that is to the north of 10N, across the SW corner of
the Caribbean Sea, to north central Nicaragua. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the area that
is from 15N southward from 78W westward.

A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American
Gyre, will persist in the northern parts of Central America and
in southern Mexico, for several days. Expect widespread
rainshowers and thunderstorms in the NW Caribbean Sea through
Saturday. Strong southeast winds and building seas will continue
in the Gulf of Honduras and east of Yucatan, through Saturday
evening. It is possible that the Wind speeds may reach gale
force near the Yucatan Channel, from Friday through Saturday,
along with building seas. Fresh to strong trade winds will
continue in the central Caribbean Sea, through early Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic Ocean stationary front passes through 32N48W,
to 25N60W, 25N70W, and to 25N76W.  Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 150 nm to the N of the
stationary front between 58W and 70W. Isolated moderate is
within 200 nm to the south of the front from 70W eastward.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N12W, to
31N12W. The front is stationary from 31N12W to 24N26W, 24N33W,
to 29N43W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is to the north of
the stationary front.

The current stationary front, that is along 25N to the east of
the Bahamas, will dissipate slowly, through Thursday. High
pressure to the north of the front will support moderate to
fresh trade winds, mainly to the north of Hispaniola, through
Saturday.

$$
mt
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