[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021742
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
142 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TD Three has strengthened to Tropical Storm Cristobal. Cristobal
is centered near 19.3N 92.7W at 02/1515 UTC or 130 nm WSW of
Campeche Mexico moving SW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is
within 270 nm of the center in the east semicircle and 90 nm
west semicircle, including the Yucatan Peninsula and portions of
southern Mexico. Cristobal is forecast to meander over the
southern Bay of Campeche through Thursday. Additional heavy
rainfall is expected over southern Mexico and northern Central
America, potentially leading to life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides during the next few days. See the latest NHC
forecast advisory at hurricanes.gov for more information.

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Cristobal is part of a larger Central American
Gyre circulation that has been bringing heavy rainfall and
severe flooding to portions of Central America and southern
Mexico during the past several days. Additional heavy rainfall
is expected through Saturday over portions of southern Mexico
from the Yucatan Peninsula through Chiapas to eastern portions
of Veracruz and Oaxaca. In Central America, portions of Belize,
Guatemala, El Salvador and southwestern Honduras are also
likely to receive additional heavy rainfall. The rains could
lead to additional life-threatening flash floods and mudslides,
especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to
products issued by your local or national meteorological
service for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave extends from 16N22W to 02N25W, moving
W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
seen from 01N-08N between 19W-24W, and from 06N-10N between
27W-30W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 48W S of 16N moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 08N18W. The ITCZ continues W of a tropical wave from 05N29W
to
05N45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from
03N-10N between 33W-44W. Along the coast of Africa, scattered
moderate to strong convection is seen from 03N-12N, east of 16W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on Tropical Storm Cristobal. Moist
cyclonic surface wind flow covers the central and northern
Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms cover
most of the Gulf. Outside of winds associated with Cristobal,
moderate winds prevail.

Broad cyclonic flow associated with the Central American Gyre
will prevail over the Gulf of Mexico through the week. After
meandering over the Bay of Campeche through Thu, TS Cristobal
is forecast to move slowly northward toward the central Gulf
this weekend while strengthening and growing in size.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is over the
western Gulf of Honduras. This convection is stronger and more
widespread farther west, over the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is also seen over the
southwest Caribbean to the SW of a line from 10N75W to 15N83W
and extending over land areas from NW Colombia to eastern
Nicaragua. Isolated showers and tstorms are seen over the
Greater Antilles from Hispaniola to Cuba. Although upper-level
troughing is over the eastern Caribbean, the atmosphere over
the eastern and central Caribbean is a little drier than the
western Caribbean. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh trades over
the central Caribbean south of 17N between 68W-81W, with
strong winds near the coast of NE Colombia. Fresh winds are
also over the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate winds are elsewhere.

A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American
Gyre, will persist over northern Central America and southern
Mexico during the entire week leading to scattered showers
and tstorms over the NW Caribbean. Winds and seas will
increase in the Gulf of Honduras and off Yucatan through Sat
as a result. The Bermuda High will rebuild north of the basin
today, which will lead to the development of fresh winds in
the south-central Caribbean through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N56W to 27N62W to 25N69W to 26N78W.
A surface trough is from 26N60W to 23N64W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 210 nm ahead of the cold front and near
the surface trough, mainly east of 65W and north of 22N. The
convection is being enhanced by an upper-level trough, which
extends from near 32N59W to the eastern Caribbean Sea. A
recent ASCAT pass shows fresh NE winds within 270 nm N of the
front. The cold front will shift south and stall along 23N by
late this afternoon, before dissipating tonight. High pressure
building in the wake of the front will support moderate to
fresh trade winds south of 22N Wed through Sat, mainly north
of Hispaniola.

Farther east, a 1023 mb high is near 31N46W. A cold front
extends from the Madeira Islands to 28N27W to 30N35W. A
dissipating cold front is from 30N18W to 22N33W. Isolated
showers are possible near both fronts.

$$
Hagen
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