[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010612
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EDT Mon Jun 01 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Heavy rainfall in Central America and Southern Mexico...

A Central American Gyre is centered over northern Central America
and southern Mexico, with the broad cyclonic circulation around
the gyre encompassing southern Mexico and much of Central
America. Areas of thunderstorms continue to impact portions of
Central America from Nicaragua northwestward to Southern Mexico.
The remnant low of Amanda is now centered over N Guatemala, but
the focused area of circulation within the larger Central
American Gyre has led to torrential rainfall over portions of
Guatemala and El Salvador over the past 12 to 24 hours.

Winds around the gyre will continue to advect abundant moisture
into portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico for the
next several days. This will maintain a dangerous situation for
these areas. Heavy rainfall has already impacted portions of
Guatemala, Belize, El Salvador, western Honduras, western
Nicaragua, and portions of southern Mexico E of Veracruz and
eastern Oaxaca. A continued period of active and wet weather,
with periods of heavy rainfall, is expected over these areas the
next several days. The continued heavy rainfall will exacerbate
the current situation, with the potential for life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides for locations that receive the
heaviest rainfall, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.
Please refer to products issued by your local weather service for
more details.

The remnant low of Amanda may rotate around the larger
circulation of the Central American Gyre and move out over water
in the Bay of Campeche. There is a medium possibility that the
remnant circulation of Amanda may develop into a tropical
cyclone in the SW Gulf when it emerges over water.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N15W to 06N22W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N22W to 04N30W to the coast of Brazil near
00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is off the coast of Sierra
Leone from 06N-11N between 13W-18W. Isolated moderate convection
is within 120 nm of the ITCZ W of 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information
about heavy rainfall potential over southern Mexico during the
next few days.

A dissipating cold front extends from Jacksonville Florida to
New Orleans Louisiana. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of
the front. Scattered moderate convection is over the central
Gulf. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the Bay of
Campeche and in the Yucatan peninsula, associated to the Central
American Gyre. Fresh to strong winds are over the SW Gulf.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5
ft range over the SW Gulf, and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

The weak cold front along the NE Gulf will fully dissipate
tonight. However, a favorable middle to upper level pattern will
continue to favor the continuation of showers and thunderstorms
in this portion of the basin through Fri. Heavier showers are
expected in the southern half of the basin associated with the
remnant low of Amanda over Guatemala and a broad area of low
pressure, known as a Central American Gyre, that is forecast to
be nearly stationary the entire week. Strong to near gale force
winds and high seas are expected in the Bay of Campeche through
Wed associated with this scenario.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information
about heavy rainfall potential over Central America during the
next few days.

The Central American Gyre is producing showers and thunderstorms
across much of Central America and waters offshore central
America. Fresh to locally strong winds prevail over the Gulf of
Honduras. Gentle to moderate prevail elsewhere across the
Caribbean waters. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the Gulf of
Honduras, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American
Gyre will persist over northern Central America and southern
Mexico during the entire week supporting heavy showers and
scattered thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean. Winds and seas
will also increase in the Gulf of Honduras and off Yucatan
through Fri as a result. The Bermuda High will rebuild to north
of the basin on Tue, which will lead to the development of fresh
winds in the south-central Caribbean Tue through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N75W to Jacksonville
Florida. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A
1016 mb low is centered over the W Atlantic near 29N67W. A
surface trough extends S from the low to the S Bahamas near
22N73W. Scattered moderate convection is withim 120o nm if the
low and trough. The tail end of a cold front is over the
E Atlantic from 31N24W to 28N30W to 31N38W. Scattered showers
are within 120 nm of the front. Over the W Atlantic, gentle to
moderate trade winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail S of 20N.
Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5 ft prevail over the open
waters N of 20N. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range W of the Bahamas.

The W Atlantic cold front will extend from just east of Bermuda
SW to the northern Bahamas by Mon afternoon, stall along 25N by
Tue afternoon, and dissipate by Wed. NE winds behind the front
will increase to fresh to strong Mon and Tue. High pressure
building in the wake of the front will support moderate to fresh
trade winds south of 22N Wed through Fri.

$$
Formosa
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