[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTUS82 KJAX 010331
HLSJAX
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Hurricane Isaias Local Statement Advisory Number 16
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL  AL092020
1131 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia

**TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND STORM SURGE WATCH FOR ST. JOHNS AND
FLAGLER COUNTY COASTS**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect for
      Coastal Flagler and Coastal St. Johns

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 580 miles south-southeast of Jacksonville FL or about 520
      miles southeast of Flagler Beach FL
    - 23.3N 76.4W
    - Storm Intensity 80 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 310 degrees at 15 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Isaias continued a northwest track across the southern
Bahamas, and this path is expected to continue through Saturday
evening as the storm approaches the southeast Florida Atlantic coast.
Isaias is expected to begin a northward turn Saturday night, which
will bring the storm near the northeast Florida Atlantic coast as it
continues a northward track Sunday night and Monday. Due to the close
approach of Isaias to the northeast Florida coast, a Tropical Storm
Watch and a Storm Surge Watch are in effect for the St. Johns
County and Flagler County coasts.

A tropical storm watch means that sustained tropical storm force winds
of 39 mph or greater are possible in the watch area within 48 hours. A
storm surge watch means that life-threatening water rise of 3 ft or
more is possible somewhere in the watch area over the next 48 hours.

Dangerous rip currents and building rough seas will continue tonight,
with worsening coastal and marine conditions Saturday. Bands of
rainfall with gusts near tropical storm force will be begin to
increase over the local Atlantic waters and portions of northeast
Florida Saturday night. As water levels and winds increase, coastal
flooding and beach erosion are expected, with the greatest impacts
along the St. Johns and Flagler county coasts Sunday into Monday.

If the track of Isaias were to shift closer to the coast, tropical
storm conditions could spread farther north and inland over northeast
Florida and possibly parts of coastal southeast Georgia. Therefore it
is important to continue to monitor trends with future advisories and
take appropriate actions before conditions deteriorate late Saturday.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across
Flagler and St Johns Counties. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across along remainder coastal areas of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia.

Elsewhere across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia, little to
no impact is anticipated.

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across St Johns and Flagler counties. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across the St Johns River Basin, as well as remainder of
northeast Florida coast and the southeast Georgia coast.

Elsewhere across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia, little to
no impact is anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across coastal areas of northeast Florida.
Potential impacts include:
    - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
      Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen
      and overflow in spots.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.

Elsewhere across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia, little to
no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Jacksonville FL around 530 AM, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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