[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Isaias Local Statement Advisory Number 15
National Weather Service Miami FL  AL092020
530 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

This product covers South Florida

**Hurricane Warning For Palm Beach County. Hurricane watch for eastern
Broward County**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
      Warning for Inland Broward and Metro Miami-Dade
    - The Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning have been
      upgraded to a Hurricane Warning for Coastal Palm Beach and
      Metro Palm Beach
    - A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Coastal Broward
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Hurricane Watch
      and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Inland Palm
      Beach
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Far South Miami-Dade
      and Inland Miami-Dade

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Coastal Broward and Inland Palm Beach
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Coastal Palm Beach and
      Metro Palm Beach
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Coastal Miami-Dade,
      Inland Broward, Metro Broward, and Metro Miami-Dade
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Far South Miami-Dade
      and Inland Miami-Dade

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 360 miles southeast of Miami FL
    - 22.6N 75.7W
    - Storm Intensity 75 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 305 degrees at 15 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Isaias is forecast to move northwest near the Central
Bahamas tonight, northwestern Bahamas on Saturday, then across the
Straits of Florida and near the east Florida coast Saturday night as
a Category 1 hurricane. This westward shift in the forecast track of
Isaias closer to the Southeast Florida coast means that a Hurricane
Warning has been issued for coastal and metro Palm Beach County,
meaning that damaging hurricane force winds are now expected to
affect parts of coastal and metro Palm Beach County from Saturday
night through early Sunday morning. A Hurricane Watch is now in
effect for coastal Broward and inland Palm Beach Counties due to the
possibility of hurricane force wind reaching the coastline farther
south late Saturday or Saturday night. The westward shift also means
that a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for all of Broward
County, as well as coastal and metro Miami-Dade County, and a
Tropical Storm Watch for Inland Miami-Dade County. A Tropical Storm
Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere
in the warning area within the next 24 to 36 hours.

Damaging tropical storm force winds are expected to arrive at the
coast Saturday afternoon. Therefore, it is crucial that preparations
to protect life and property be completed by the end of the day
today, or by no later than Saturday morning. Continue to monitor
trends and be ready to take appropriate action if the forecast track
continues to shift farther west tonight or early Saturday.

Due to the closer approach of Isaias to the coast, and accounting
for the possibility of further westward shifts in the forecast track
in future forecasts, a reasonable worst case scenario at this time
is for damaging, sustained high-end tropical storm force wind (58
mph or greater) over all of coastal and metro Broward County, as
well as northern and central portions of coastal and metro Miami-
Dade County. There is also the possibility of sustained tropical
storm force winds of 40 to 50 mph over inland sections of Miami-Dade
County northward to Lake Okeechobee. If the track of Isaias were to
shift even closer to the coast in future forecasts, hurricane and
tropical storm conditions could spread farther inland over southern
Florida.

Winds are forecast to gradually subside from south to north early
Sunday.

Other concerns with Isaias will be the potential for locally heavy
rainfall and urban flooding late Saturday through Sunday,
particularly across eastern portions of South Florida and around
Lake Okeechobee where there is a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall. High surf, dangerous rip currents, minor coastal flooding
and beach erosion are expected, with the greater impacts along the
Palm Beach and Broward county coasts. A stronger storm and/or a
track closer to the coast would increase the threat of coastal
flooding, so again it is important to keep monitoring future
forecasts. Marine conditions will deteriorate early Saturday morning
as the system approaches the region from east to west across the
local Atlantic waters, with increasing winds and building seas.
Marine conditions are not likely to improve until sometime on Sunday
at the earliest.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across Palm Beach County. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across the remainder of southeast Florida, especially
over eastern Broward and Miami-Dade Counties.

Elsewhere across South Florida, little to no impact is anticipated.

* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across coastal Palm Beach and Broward Counties. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

Elsewhere across South Florida, little to no impact is anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across the Southeast Florida metropolitan areas. Potential
impacts include:
    - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
    - Ditches and canals may quickly rise with swift currents.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.

Elsewhere across South Florida, little to no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess
the risk from wind, falling trees, and flooding at your location. If
you decide to move, relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do
not relocate, help keep roadways open for those under evacuation
orders.

If evacuating, follow designated evacuation routes. Seek traffic
information on roadway signs, the radio, and from official sources.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather
forecast before departing and drive with caution.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Miami FL around 11 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$
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