[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Isaias Local Statement Advisory Number 14
National Weather Service Miami FL  AL092020
1220 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

This product covers South Florida

**Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch Issued for portions of
South Florida. **

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Hurricane Watch
      and the Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical
      Storm Warning for Coastal Palm Beach and Metro Palm Beach
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
      Warning for Coastal Broward, Coastal Miami-Dade, and Metro
      Broward

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Coastal Palm Beach and Metro Palm Beach
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Inland Broward, Inland
      Palm Beach, and Metro Miami-Dade
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Coastal Broward,
      Coastal Miami-Dade, and Metro Broward

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 460 miles southeast of Miami FL or about 550 miles
      east-southeast of Naples FL
    - 21.7N 74.5W
    - Storm Intensity 75 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 305 degrees at 16 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Isaias is forecast to move across the southeastern Bahamas
today, and gradually strengthen to a Category 1 hurricane as it
approaches the western Bahamas tonight and early Saturday. A gradual
turn to the north-northwest is expected on Saturday, which is
expected to keep the center of Isaias just offshore the Southeast
Florida coast. Nevertheless, the western side of the tropical storm
force wind field is forecast to affect parts of coastal and metro
Southeast Florida Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Therefore,
the Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning for metro and coastal Southeast Florida, including Miami-
Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties. A Tropical Storm Warning
means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere in the
warning area within the next 36 hours. Preparations to protect life
and property should be completed by the end of the day today, or
very early Saturday morning at the latest.

There is still a fair amount of uncertainty with the timing of the
gradual turn to the north-northwest. Any delay in the turn would
bring the stronger winds associated with Isaias closer to the coast.
For this reason, a Hurricane Watch is also now in effect for coastal
and metro Palm Beach County. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane
conditions are possible within the next 48 hours.

Due to the close approach of Isaias to the coast, a reasonable worst
case scenario at this time is for portions of coastal Palm Beach
County to be impacted by sustained hurricane force wind late
Saturday and Saturday night. There is also a reasonable worst case
scenario for sustained high-end tropical storm force wind (58 mph or
greater) elsewhere over metro and inland Palm Beach County, coastal
and metro Broward County, and northeastern Miami-Dade County. If the
track were to shift closer to the coast, hurricane and tropical
storm conditions could spread farther inland over southern Florida.
Therefore it is important to continue to monitor trends with future
advisories and take appropriate actions before conditions
deterirorate on Saturday.

Tropical storm force winds could start as early as early Saturday
morning, but most likely beginning Saturday afternoon and continue
through Saturday night. Winds are forecast to gradually subside
during the morning hours on Sunday.

Other concerns with Isaias will be the potential for locally heavy
rainfall and urban flooding, particularly across eastern portions of
South Florida where there is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall.
High surf, dangerous rip currents, minor coastal flooding and beach
erosion are expected, with the greater impacts along the Palm Beach
and Broward county coasts. A stronger storm and/or a track closer to
the coast would increase the threat of coastal flooding, so again it
is important to keep monitoring future forecasts. Marine conditions
will deteriorate early Saturday morning as the system approaches the
region from east to west across the local Atlantic waters, with
increasing winds and building seas. Marine conditions are not likely
to improve until sometime on Sunday at the earliest.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across portions of coastal and metro Palm Beach County.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across eastern portions of Broward and Miami-Dade
Counties.

Elsewhere across South Florida, little to no impact is anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across the Southeast Florida metropolitan areas. Potential
impacts include:
    - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
    - Ditches and canals may quickly rise with swift currents.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.

Elsewhere across South Florida, little to no impact is anticipated.

* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across coastal Palm Beach County. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

Elsewhere across South Florida, little to no impact is anticipated.

* TORNADOES:
Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time
across South Florida.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business. Follow the advise of your local emergency management
officials.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio, and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Miami FL around 5 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$
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