[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Isaias Local Statement Advisory Number 13
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL092020
535 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

This product covers East Central Florida

**HURRICANE ISAIAS HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND WILL MAKE
  ITS CLOSEST APPROACH THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST THIS WEEKEND**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Indian River, Martin,
      and St. Lucie

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 690 miles southeast of Cape Canaveral FL or about 610
      miles southeast of Stuart FL
    - 20.9N 73.3W
    - Storm Intensity 80 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 305 degrees at 17 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Isaias, now over the southeastern Bahamas early this morning,
is forecast to move northwest into the central Bahamas by tonight, and
the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. The latest forecast remains
consistent in turning Isaias north-northwest and then north, parallel
to the central Florida Atlantic coast while remaining about 50 to 60
miles offshore at its closest point of approach Saturday night through
Sunday afternoon.

Isaias, currently a category one hurricane, and forecast to briefly
reach category two strength over the Bahamas tonight into Saturday,
before encountering increasing wind shear and weakening back to a
category one hurricane from Saturday afternoon through Sunday as it
makes is closest approach to east central Florida.

A Tropical Storm Watch continues for the coastal counties of Indian
River, Saint Lucie and Martin, for winds increasing to tropical storm
force as Isaias moves slowly northward offshore the Treasure Coast
Saturday through Saturday night, Brevard county late Saturday night
and Sunday morning, and Volusia County Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night.

Based on the latest forecast track, the greatest threat for tropical
storm conditions this weekend continues to be over the barrier islands
of the coastal counties. However, any westward deviation of the
forecast track would bring stronger winds farther inland, with the
potential for damaging winds and gusts along the barrier islands.

Rain bands with gusty squalls from Isaias will reach the Treasure
Coast Saturday afternoon, increasing in coverage and intensity as they
spread north along the coast Saturday night through Sunday. Rainfall
amounts may reach 3 to 5 inches across the coastal counties, with the
heaviest totals expected over the Treasure Coast. Rainfall across
inland areas will be lower with 1 to 3 inches expected. This may cause
minor flooding of urban and other poorly drained and low-lying areas.

Long period swells from Isaias will reach the surf zone today and
build through this weekend. This will create a high risk for strong
and life threatening rip currents. The building seas and surf will
will also result in dangerously high seas of 20 feet or higher, and
large breaking waves in excess of 7 feet. Beach erosion is likely
around the times of high tide throughout the upcoming weekend. Boating
and beach activity will become extremely dangerous, so you will want
to stay out of the water.

Persons in east central Florida should continue to monitor the latest
forecasts and statements from the National Hurricane Center, and your
National Weather Service office in Melbourne through this weekend.
Additional watches or warnings will likely be needed throughout this
weekend.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across
the Treasure Coast Counties.

Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.


* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible limited
impacts across coastal areas from around Cape Canaveral southward.

Potential impacts include:
    - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
      Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches may become
      swollen and overflow in spots.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

If you are a visitor, know the name of the county or parish in which
you are located and where it is relative to current watches and
warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their
onsite disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially
pertaining to area visitors.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 1200 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

Cristaldi
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