[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252217
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
616 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Hanna is centered near 26.8N 97.2W at 25/2100 UTC or
20 nm NE of Port Mansfield Texas moving WSW at 7 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted within 180 nm of the center in all quadrants.
Doppler radar shows an eye diameter of about 25 nm. Hanna will
make landfall on the South Texas coast later this afternoon as a
Category 1 hurricane. It should then weaken rapidly inland into a
tropical storm tonight and tropical depression Sun over Deep South
Texas and NE Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml
for more details.

Remnants Of Gonzalo is centered near 11.0N 63.0W at 25/2100 UTC
or 110 nm WNW of Trinidad moving W at 18 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30
kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 61W and 72W. Gonzalo
has weakened and become a remnant system and is not expected to
re-strengthen. This is the last NHC Advisory on Gonzalo. These
remnants may still bring some squalls with heavy rainfall and
gusty winds over portions of the SE Caribbean through the weekend.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A strong Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is several hundred miles SW
of the Cabo Verde Islands, along 32W from 02N to 21N, moving W at
15 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is from
07N-12N between 24W- 37W. The westward motion is expected to
continue and a tropical depression is likely to form in
association with this wave early next week when the system reaches
the central Tropical Atlantic. There is a low probability of
tropical formation for the next 48 hours, but a high probability
of formation in the next 5 days.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W from 21N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Convection previously associated with this wave
has diminished.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave along 80W from 21N southward is
beginning to move into the Pacific Ocean and Central America. It
is moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 10N-16N between 76W-81W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N17W to 11N30W to 10N47W. The ITCZ is from 09N52W to
09N57W. Aside from convection mentioned in the Special Features
and Tropical Waves sections, Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 08N-14N E of 24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Hanna.
Outside of Hanna immediate impacts, broad bands of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 25N to 30N
between 85W and 91W. Some thunderstorms are also moving off the
Florida Peninsula. Generally, moderate to fresh SE winds are
occurring across the Gulf, and with high pressure centered east of
the Gulf through much of next week, these will continue. Pulses
of strong SE winds are expected at least early next week moving
off the Yucatan Peninsula and then crossing portions of the
western Gulf. Seas will average 4 to 6 ft.

In the area of the northwest Gulf affected by Hurricane Hanna,
winds will fall below tropical storm strength overnight along the
Texas coast as Hanna moves farther inland, however strong SE winds
will prevail through the weekend. Seas of 12 to 20 ft in the same
area will fall below 12 ft overnight, but then remain from 7 to 10
ft into early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Special Features section above for details on recently
dissipated Tropical Depression Gonzalo. Outside of the direct
impacts of Gonzalo, scattered moderate convection is noted in the
NW Caribbean N of 17N and W of 81W. Fresh trades are occurring
across most of the basin, with some strong winds over the south-
central Caribbean.

The remnants of Tropical Depression Gonzalo will cross into the
south central Caribbean Sun, then into the western Caribbean Mon,
as a strong tropical wave. This will bring squalls of showers and
thunderstorms, along with strong E winds. Otherwise, fresh trades,
occasionally strong in the central Caribbean, will prevail well
into next week. A tropical wave currently along 32W has a high
chance of developing into a tropical depression early to mid next
week, and this could affect Atlantic waters east of the Lesser
Antilles for the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough coupled with an upper-level low pressure centered
over the NW Bahamas is producing numerous moderate to scattered
strong convection. Otherwise, a broad ridge of high pressure,
anticyclonic wind flow and mostly fair weather span the Atlantic
Ocean, north of 24N and east of 65W.

Moderate to fresh trades are expected south of the ridge through
much of next week. A strong tropical wave over the eastern
tropical Atlantic will move into the central tropical Atlantic by
early next week, and it has a high chance of tropical depression
formation in the next 5 days. This feature may reach the eastern
tropical Atlantic mid-week.

$$
KONARIK
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