[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241728
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1708 UTC Fri Jul 24 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Hanna is centered near 27.2N 93.2W at 24/1500 UTC
or 140 nm E of Corpus Christi Texas moving WNW at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is observed north of 24N and west of 89W. Seas
in the area of the storm are ranging between 11-13 ft. A turn
toward the west is expected tonight, followed by a westward to
west-southwestward motion through the weekend.  On the forecast
track, center of Hanna should make landfall along the Texas coast
within the warning area Saturday afternoon or evening. Please read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/
MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 10.0N 54.2W at 24/1500
UTC or 420 nm E of the Southern Windward Islands moving W at 16
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 08N-12N between 51W-56W.
Seas are reaching 16 ft in the northeast quadrant of the
center. Gonzalo is expected to experience some strengthening
during the next day or so before Gonzalo reaches the southern
Windward Islands. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves
into the Caribbean Sea, and the cyclone is expected to dissipate
by the middle of next week. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been introduced to this analysis just west of
Africa. The wave axis extends along 20W from 01N-19N, moving west at
about 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted with this wave
from 04N-19N and east of 30W.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 40W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 03N-09N between 36W-42W.

There were 2 tropical waves in the previous analysis that
have merged in the east-central Caribbean at this time. The
resultant wave axis extends along 71W from 20N southward.
This wave is well noted in satellite imagery and wave
diagnostics. Scattered showers are noted over the northern
portion of the wave affecting Hispaniola and adjacent waters.

A western Caribbean/EPAC tropical wave extends its axis along 85W,
moving westward 15 kt. No significant convection is over the
Caribbean, but scattered moderate convection is noted in the EPAC
portion.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa from 22N17W to
11N39W. The convection in the vicinity of the monsoon trough is
related to the tropical waves in the area. This activity is
described in the section above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features above for details on T.S. Hanna.

Outside of the immediate area of TS Hanna, moderate to fresh SE
winds are noted across the central and eastern Gulf, with 4 to 6
ft seas. Light breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas are evident over the
western Gulf. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is
observed beyond the ongoing activity related to Hanna.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will build starting late Sat
east to west from roughly Tampa, Florida to South Texas in the
wake of Hanna. Winds and seas will diminish accordingly into
early next week, although fresh evening winds are possible off
Yucatan due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the sections above for details on T.S. Gonzalo and the
tropical waves moving across the basin.

Moderate to fresh trade winds persist across the basin this
morning. Seas are 4 to 6 ft except for 2 to 4 ft over the
northwest Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection prevails
across the north-central and northwest Caribbean mainly north
of 17N and west of 75W.

T.S. Gonzalo is forecast to move through the southern Windward
Islands on Saturday, then gradually weaken as it enters the
eastern Caribbean, reaching 12.4N 62.3W Sat evening, 13.0N 65.7W
Sun morning, 13.7N 69.0W Sun evening, and weaken to a tropical
depression near 14.0N 72.0W Mon morning. Gonzalo will dissipate
early Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on T.S. Gonzalo and the
tropical waves moving across the basin.

West of 55W, the subtropical ridge is north of the area,
extending east to west along roughly 33N. The gradient between
the ridge and tropical waves over the Caribbean is supporting
moderate to fresh trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas mainly south of
22N. Gentle to moderate breezes prevail elsewhere with 3 to 5 ft
seas in open waters. An upper trough over the northern Bahamas is
supporting scattered moderate convection from 20N-25N between
66W-74W. Little change is expected in the pattern through early
next week.

Farther east, high pressure dominates the central Atlantic north
of 20N. A large area of fresh trade winds is noted between
the high pressure and T.S. Gonzalo in the deep tropics, between 45W
and 55W. Seas are 8 to 9 ft in this area. Strong NE winds and 8 to 9
ft seas are noted off the coast Africa, north of 20N and east of
30W.

$$

ERA
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