[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 230840
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082020
400 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020

Satellite images and surface synoptic observations suggest that
the depression has not strengthened thus far, although recent
images show some increase in deep convection near the estimated
center.  The initial intensity estimate remains at 25 kt in
agreement with surface data over the Gulf.  The cyclone should
remain in a relatively moist, low-shear environment during the next
day or so.  However, since the system is not well organized, only
slow strengthening is forecast until the center reaches the coast.
The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper range of the model
guidance at this time.

The center is not well-defined and the initial motion estimate is
an uncertain 290/8 kt.  This is more or less consistent with
observations from NOAA data buoy 42001 over the central Gulf.  A
continued west-northwestward track is expected over the next day or
so followed by a slight bend toward the west in response to some
building of a mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone.  The
official track forecast is a little faster than the previous one but
not quite as fast as the latest dynamical model consensus.


Key Messages

1. The depression is expected to strengthen and it could bring
tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast, where a
tropical storm watch has been issued.

2. The depression is expected to produce heavy rains across
portions of Louisiana and southern Texas.  These rains could result
in flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 26.0N  90.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 26.4N  91.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 27.1N  92.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 27.7N  94.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 28.0N  95.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  25/1800Z 28.2N  97.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...ON COAST
 72H  26/0600Z 28.2N  98.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  27/0600Z 28.0N 100.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
120H  28/0600Z 28.0N 102.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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