[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
604 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Seven is centered near 10.0N 42.4W at
22/0900 UTC or 1120 nm E of the Southern Windward Islands moving
WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from
07N to 12N between 41W and 44W. TD Seven is forecast to continue
on a westward motion, and reach tropical storm intensity today. On
the westward track, the system will move into the offshore
forecast zones east of the Windward Islands Friday, and enter the
eastern Caribbean Saturday. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 22W, from 20N southward,
moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 13N to 20N between 20W and 27W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 50W, from 19N southward. With
high pressure building north of the tropical wave, the steering
flow has strengthened. This has increased the forward motion of
the tropical wave, which is now moving westward at 20 to 25
knots. This is much faster than the average forward speed of
tropical waves, which is around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 90 nm west of the wave axis from 07N to
09N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 60W, from 18N southward,
moving westward at 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection is noted
within 90 nm east of the wave axis.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 70W, from 22N southward,
moving westward at 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection is noted
within 60 nm of the wave axis from 20N to 22N, and within 60 nm
east of the wave axis from 14N to 17N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 89W, from 23N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Low pressure has developed in
association with this wave, and is currently centered in the central
Gulf. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
over the eastern Gulf south of 26N in association to this system.
There is currently a low probability that this low will develop
into tropical cyclone over the next 2 days, and a medium
probability of tropical cyclogenesis within the next 5 days.
Please refer to the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for
further information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 15N16W to 12N27W to 12N36W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N51W to 09N59W. Aside from convection noted
with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted within 360 NM south of the monsoon trough
between 21W and 34W.

GULF OF MEXICO

A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 25.5N87W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted over the eastern Gulf
south of 26N in association to this system. Fresh to strong winds
prevail over the eastern Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere. The low will continue to shift WNW across the Central
Gulf today, and into the NW Gulf Thursday and Friday. This low is
being monitored for possible tropical cyclone formation, with a
low probability of genesis over the next two days, and a medium
probability over the next five days. Fresh to strong winds are
expected in association with this system the next couple of days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean,
with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Tropical Depression
Seven is centered east of the Windward Islands near 10.0N 42.4W,
and is moving WNW at 10 kt. TD Seven is forecast to continue on a
westward motion, and reach tropical storm intensity today. On the
westward track, the system is forecast to move into the eastern
Caribbean Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see above for more on Tropical Depression Seven.

Active convection continues west of the Bahamas as tropical
moisture continues to follow a tropical wave that is in the Gulf
of Mexico. Elsewhere, 1025 mb high pressure is centered near
33N40W, with associated ridge extending westward roughly along
32N. Light to gentle winds prevail along the ridge axis. The
pressure gradient between the high pressure center and TD Seven is
supporting fresh to locally strong winds generally over the
waters south of 25N and east of 60W. Fresh to strong winds are
also noted within 60 NM north of Hispaniola. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds prevail.

The ridge north of the area will support pulses of fresh to
locally strong winds off Hispaniola and near the entrance to the
Windward Passage for the next several nights. Winds and seas will
increase E of 65W toward the end of the week as high pressure
continues to build across the western Atlantic.

$$
AL
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