[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220006
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2307 UTC Tue Jul 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Seven formed in the Central Tropical Atlantic
at 2100 UTC. The center of T.D. Seven is near 9.8N 40.4W, moving
west-northwest at 7 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure
is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to
40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-12N between
37W and 43W. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm
tonight or Wednesday.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc extending from 05N-20N with axis
near 18W, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 10N-17N east of 21W.

A tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles extending from
06N-18N with axis near 57W, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is 07N-10N between 55W-61W.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean extending from 10N-20N with
axis near 66W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and
tstms are over Puerto Rico and adjacent waters.

A tropical wave is in the west Caribbean S of 20N with axis near
84W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is N of 17N between 75W and 86W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near
14N17W to 10N24W to 09N35W. The ITCZ extends from 06N46W to
08N60W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves
and Tropical Depression Seven, scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm either side of both ITCZ and monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO

A weak low pressure has developed over the SE Gulf near the
northern end of a tropical wave. This system is expected to cross
the SE Gulf of Mexico tonight, move over the central Gulf on
Wednesday, and reach the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and
Friday. Gradual tropical cyclone formation is possible while it
moves west-northwestward during the next few days. Increasing
winds and seas are expected in association with this system.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see above for more information on two tropical waves
supporting showers and tstms in both Puerto Rico and Cuba,
respectively.

Tropical Depression Seven formed near 9.8N 40.4W at 5 PM EDT and
is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm near 10.1N 41.7W
Wed morning, move to 10.3N 43.9W Wed afternoon, 10.3N 46.3W Thu
morning, 10.4N 49.0W Thu afternoon, 10.6N 51.6W Fri morning, and
11.0N 54.7W Fri afternoon. Seven will enter the southeast
Caribbean Sat early in the afternoon, however it will weaken as
it continues to move westward through the southwest Caribbean
through Sun.

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area
and low  pressure over Colombia will maintain fresh to locally
strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean this week.
Otherwise, expect increasing winds and seas over the NE
Caribbean toward the end of the week as high pressure builds
across the western Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and tstms prevail over adjacent waters of the
Greater Antilles as well as in the central Bahamas associated
with an area of low pressure that developed over the SE Gulf of
Mexico.

A ridge north of the area will support pulses of fresh to
locally strong winds off Hispaniola and near the entrance to the
Windward Passage for the next several nights. Winds and seas will
increase E of 65W toward the end of the week as high pressure
builds across the western Atlantic.

$$
Ramos
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