[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211009
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
608 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized
in association with a low pressure system located near 09N39W.
The low has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during
the next 48 hours while it moves westward at 10 kt. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is from 06N to 11N between 37W and
41W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 42W from 02N-19N, moving west
at 15 kt. Low pressure has developed in association to this wave,
and is discussed in the special features section above. The
tropical wave has started to move faster than the low, and has
moved west of the surface low. The wave will continue to move
further away from the surface low over the next few days. With
high pressure strengthening over the subtropics, the steering
flow will increase, and help the wave to increase its westward
motion to around 20 to 25 kt within the next 24 to 48 hours.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 54W from 17N southward,
moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is along
and within 120 nm of the wave axis from 08N to 10N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 64W from 20N southward,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
within 60 nm E of the wave axis from 12N-16N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 80W south of 24N across Panama
and into the eastern north Pacific, moving west at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 18N to 26N
between 75W and 82W, including South Florida, Jamaica, Cuba and
the NW Bahamas. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone
formation during the next 48 hours as the northern portion of the
wave moves west across the Gulf of Mexico. The southern portion of
the wave is producing scattered moderate to strong convection in
the far SW Caribbean from the N coast of Panama to 11N between 77W
and 82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 19.5N17W
to 09.5N34W. The ITCZ extends from 08N41W to 08N52W, then resumes
west of a tropical wave from 08N56W to 08N59W. Aside from the
convection related to the tropical waves and low pressure described
above, scattered showers are noted near both boundaries. Numerous
moderate scattered strong convection is near the coast of Africa
from 07N-18N east of 20W. This is ahead of the next tropical wave
which is moving off the coast of Africa.

GULF OF MEXICO

A surface trough is moving inland over Texas from the NW Gulf.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong showers are north of 27.5N
between 91W and 95W, including over the coast between south-
central Louisiana and Galveston Bay. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail over the SW Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds are noted
elsewhere.

Showers and thunderstorms are increasing over the Florida Straits
and southeastern Gulf of Mexico in association with a tropical
wave that is just east of the area. This wave is forecast to move
west through the eastern Gulf today, central Gulf Wed, then the
W Gulf late in the week. This system has a low chance of tropical
cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Regardless of
development, increasing winds and seas are expected in association
with this system.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see above for more on an active tropical wave moving across
the western Caribbean. The tropical wave is helping produce
active weather south of Cuba.

Fresh to strong winds are noted over the south central Caribbean.
Elsewhere, fresh winds prevail over the north central Caribbean,
moderate winds prevail over the eastern Caribbean, and light to
gentle winds prevail over the western Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and
low pressure over Colombia will maintain fresh to locally strong
trade winds over the south- central Caribbean this week.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds will persist across
the region for the next several days. Expect increasing winds
and seas over the NE Caribbean toward the end of the week as
high pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The tropical wave moving across South Florida and the Florida
Straits is producing scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection south of 26N, between 76W and the Florida Straits.
Moderate to fresh winds are noted across the area from 20N-25N
between 65W and the Florida Straits. Strong E winds cover the
area from the N coast of Hispaniola to the Turks and Caicos
Islands.

Fresh winds will prevail over the waters S of 25N today as the
tropical wave moves west of the region. A ridge north of the area
will support pulses of fresh to locally strong winds off
Hispaniola and near the entrance to the Windward Passage for the
next several nights. Winds and seas will increase E of 65W toward
the end of the week as high pressure builds across the western
Atlantic.

In the NE Atlantic, strong NE winds prevail from 22N-29N, east of
27W, with locally near gale winds in the vicinity of the Canary
Islands.

$$
AL
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