[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182250
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
650 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 25W, from 19N southward,
moving west at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 08.5N to 11.5N between 21W and 27W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 37W, from 17N southward,
moving west at 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 33W and 38W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 52W from 21N southward,
moving west at 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection is noted
along the ITCZ near this wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 67W, from 19N southward,
moving westward at 15 knots. No significant convection is noted
at this time.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W from the Yucatan Channel
southward across the Caribbean Sea, moving west at 15 knots.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted across the
the Yucatan Channel and western Cuba north of 18N, and across the
Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 10N25W to 07N41W. The ITCZ continues from 07N41W to 08N51W,
then resumes from 09N52W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N61W.
Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section,
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to
11N between 27W and 33W. Scattered moderate convection is within
180 nm north of the ITCZ between 38W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough continues to meander across the NE central Gulf,
along 89W from 22N-28N. A trough is also analyzed in the Bay of
Campeche from 21N95W to 18N93W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is across the Gulf, N of 24N east of 89W.
Widely scattered thunderstorms are also in the vicinity of the
trough in the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh easterly winds
continue to prevail over the SE Gulf, while gentle to moderate
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas range 3-5 ft.

The surface trough will weaken over the central Gulf tonight. A
second trough crossing Florida today will pass over the eastern
Gulf tonight and Sun. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas
will prevail through early next week. Looking ahead, another
trough may move across the Gulf during the middle of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is noted in the NW Caribbean, N of
18N between 81W-86W, including western Cuba. A thermal trough is
over the Yucatan Peninsula which is providing focus for
convection over the peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is
also in the SW Caribbean off the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama.
Fresh trades are north of Colombia. Otherwise, light to gentle
trades are noted across the rest of the basin. Seas range 3-6 ft
with upwards of 9 ft near the fresh winds north of Colombia.

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and
low pressure over Colombia will maintain fresh to strong trade
winds over the south-central Caribbean through the middle of next
week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail
across the region for the next several days. Winds and seas may
increase E of the Lesser Antilles Tue night through Wed night as
high pressure strengthens north of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough is analyzed along the Florida coast from 29N80W to
24N79W. Very active morning convection there has shifted inland
this afternoon, leaving only a band of scattered moderate
convection extending from central Florida across the NW Bahamas.
Another trough is analyzed from 28N70W to 23N72W with no
significant convection noted,and denotes another low level wind
surge approaching the Bahamas and SE Florida. An upper level low
near 23N66W is causing scattered moderate convection from 22N- 26N
between 62W-69W. An old frontal trough is analyzed from 31N50W to
27N56W with scattered showers within 120 nm east of the trough.
Surface ridging prevails elsewhere. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail across the discussion area with seas ranging from 3-6 ft.

A high pressure ridge north of the area will support pulses of
fresh to strong winds off Hispaniola and near the entrance to the
Windward Passage for the next couple of nights. Expect freshening
winds over the waters S of 24N Sun through early next week as a
low pressure trough moves westward across the region.

$$
Stripling
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