[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160549
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM Thu Jul 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is within
240 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between the 25W/26W
tropical wave and 30W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is 37W/38W from 16N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby
precipitation is part of the monsoon trough/ITCZ precipitation.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Any nearby
precipitation is part of the monsoon ITCZ precipitation. Saharan
dust was noted in the last few GOES-16 visible images to be
present across this wave. This has been inhibiting any
significant deep convective precipitation from developing near
the wave for the time being.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W from 21N southward,
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: Strong
subsidence, and resulting dry air in this part of the Caribbean
Sea, are allowing for fast moving isolated rainshowers to exist,
from 70W eastward.

A tropical wave is along 93W/94W, from 18N southward, moving
westward 15 knots. The wave is moving through the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. No significant deep convective
precipitation is accompanying this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Senegal, near 14N17W, to 10N20W, curving to 07N28W and 07N37W.
The ITCZ continues from 07N37W, to 06N41W, 08N50W, and to
08N54W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate
and isolated strong is within 240 nm to the north of the monsoon
trough between the 25W/26W tropical wave and 30W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 14N southward from
60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the NE corner
of the Gulf of Mexico. An upper level inverted trough passes
through the Yucatan Peninsula, curving toward the middle Texas
Gulf coast.

Broken to overcast multilayered convective debris clouds cover
the area that is from 27N northward between 87W and 93W, the SE
part of Louisiana and its coastal waters. Earlier scattered
strong precipitation has been weakening with time.

A surface ridge extends from a 1019 mb high pressure center,
that is near 27N86W, to 27N94W, and then southwestward, to the
coast of Mexico near 19N. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow
spans the entire area.

The GFS model for 700 mb shows: a trough in the NE corner of the
Gulf of Mexico. One area of anticyclonic wind flow covers the NW
corner of the area. A second and separate area of anticyclonic
wind flow covers the SE corner of the area. An inverted trough
extends from a part of the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico, into
the SW corner of the area. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind
flow covers the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure in the NE Gulf of Mexico will drift northward
through Friday. The high pressure will be in advance of a
surface trough, that will be moving across Florida into the SE
Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight seas, are
expected across the region, except for locally fresh winds near
the coast of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is in the Atlantic Ocean, from 32N60W to
23N63W, to the Mona Passage, and into the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, to the coast of Panama along 80W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong in clusters, is from 17N
to 20N between 72W and 78W, in the coastal plains and the
coastal waters from Haiti to Jamaica to SE Cuba. Broken to
overcast multilayered convective debris clouds are from 80W
westward. The clouds are from earlier widely scattered moderate
to locally strong precipitation, that was in the coastal plains
and coastal waters, that have been weakening and dissipating.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from 74W in Colombia beyond
Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the SW
Caribbean Sea, from 12N southward, from 75W westward.

High pressure to the north of the area will maintain pulses of
fresh to strong winds overnight in the Windward Passage, in the
Gulf of Honduras, and off Colombia. These winds will diminish
through Thursday, as the high pressure center shifts more to the
north.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is in the Atlantic Ocean, from 32N60W to
23N63W, to the Mona Passage, and into the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, to the coast of Panama along 80W. A N-to-S
oriented surface trough is along 72W/73W from 20N to 27N. An
inverted surface trough extends from 28N76W to 32N79W. A third
surface trough is in the central Atlantic Ocean, along 34N50W
28N56W. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 18N northward from
50W westward.

An upper level trough is in the Atlantic Ocean, from 32N60W to
23N63W, to the Mona Passage, and into the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, to the coast of Panama along 80W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong in clusters, is from 17N
to 20N between 72W and 78W, in the coastal plains and the
coastal waters from Haiti to Jamaica to SE Cuba.

Two surface troughs, that are to the NE of the Bahamas, will
dissipate overnight. A trough that is to the east of the area
will weaken, as it moves into the northern Bahamas by Saturday.
A ridge will build to the north of the area, supporting moderate
to fresh trade winds, to the south of 22N into early next week.

$$
mt
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