[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151121
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
721 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending from 03N to 20N
with axis near 20W, moving W at 10-15 knots. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from 05N-12N between 12W-26W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 03N-20N
with axis near 35W, moving W at 15 knots. The wave is in the dry
air environment of the Saharan Air Layer, which is hindering
convection at the time.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 03N-20N
with axis near 49W, moving W at 10-15 knots. The wave is also
within the dry air environment of the Saharan Air Layer, which is
hindering convection at the time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 12N16W
to 09N22W to 11N28W to 09N34W to 08N47W. The ITCZ begins near
07N50W to 06N57W. For information on convection, see the Tropical
Waves section.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Stable and fair weather conditions prevail across the basin under
the influence of a middle to upper level ridge. Deep-layer dry
air is noted in both water vapor and microwave layered precipitable
waters imagery. These weather conditions are expected to prevail
through at least Thu. In terms of winds, the pressure gradient
between low pressure along Mexico and a surface ridge over the
Gulf is supporting moderate to fresh return flow W of 90W. Light
to gentle variable winds are across the remainder basin.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through late Thu maintaining
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas with the exception of moderate
to locally fresh winds near the W coast of the Yucatan peninsula due
to local effects. Looking ahead, the ridge will shift north starting
mid week, ahead of a trough that will move westward across Florida
and into the southeast Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Except for the Lesser Antilles and adjacent waters where showers
are ocurring due to a surface trough moving through that area, the
remainder basin N of 15N is devoid of convection in part due to
the presence of dry air from the Saharan Air Layer. In the SW
Caribbean, S of 15N W of 80W, a middle to upper level inverted
trough supports scattered showers and tstms over Nicaragua and
adjacent waters.

Prevalent Atlantic high pressure extending a ridge to the
northern Caribbean waters will sustain fresh to strong winds in
the south-central basin and portions of the SW Caribbean through
the weekend. Near gale force winds are expected along the coast of
Colombia through Wed night along with fresh to strong winds in
the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, a tropical
wave will enter the tropical N Atlantic waters tonight and enter
the E Caribbean on Thu with showers.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough over central and northern Florida adjacent waters
supports isolated showers and tstms N of 27N. To the south, middle
to upper level divergence supports a cluster of showers and tstms
near the southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. The
remainder Atlantic basin N of 20N is under the influence of the
Bermuda-Azores high which supports fair weather conditions at the
current time.

The trough north of the Bahamas will persist through Wed, then
shift west as high pressure rebuilds in the region. This pattern
will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds N of Hispaniola and
near the Windward Passage through the weekend.

$$
Ramos
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