[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM Tue Jul 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is just offshore the coast of Africa with its
axis along 17W from 03N to 19N. It is moving westward at 10-15
kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within
240 nm west of the wave axis from 05N-10N. Scattered moderate
convection is east of the wave axis to the coast of Africa from
07N to 11N.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 32W from 04N
to 26n. It is moving westward at about 15 kt. This wave is
very limited convection associated with it. Only scattered
moderate convection is seen within 30 nm of 05N33W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 46W from
10N-26N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. There is no
convection due to the inhibiting factor of dry air that
surrounds the wave.

A tropical wave is over the far western Caribbean S of 20N with
its axis along 86W. It is moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is over Honduras and Nicaragua. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are over the Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from well over the interior of Africa
to the coast near 13N17W and continues to 11N23W to 08N37W and
to 08N48W, where afternoon scatterometer data indicates that it
transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 08N52W and to the
coast of Brazil at 08N59W. Aside from the convection described
above with the tropical waves, scattered convection is within
30 nm north of the trough between 43W-46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak deep-layered ridging covers most of the Gulf except for the
NE portion of the basin. A 1019 mb surface high center is
analyzed near 25N85W allowing for relatively weak high pressure
across the basin. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are
occurring over the northern Gulf waters north of 27N and between
85W-90W. Isolated showers are possible from 20N to 25N and west
of 94W. ASCAT data from during the day depicted moderate wind
speeds near the Texas coast and over the SW Gulf area.

As for the forecast, the high pressure will continue over
the Gulf waters through Wed producing mainly gentle to moderate
winds and slight seas with the exception of moderate to locally
fresh winds near the W coast of the Yucatan peninsula due to
local effects. Looking ahead, the ridge will shift northward
starting mid week, ahead of a trough that will move westward
across Florida and into the southeastern Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
over the western Caribbean and Central America.

In the SW Caribbean, the eastern segment of the Pacific monsoon
trough earlier helped enhanced scattered moderate to strong
convection south of 12N and between 76W-85W. However, during the
past few hours this activity has significantly diminished to
to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, but could
likely re-develop during the overnight hours. Saharan dust, as
observed in GOES-R imagery, covers much of the remainder of the
basin, roughly east of 82W and north of 12N. ASCAT data from this
afternoon showed fresh and strong winds from 10N-17.5N between
68W-82W.

As for the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge north of the area and lower pressure over northern
Colombia will maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds in the
south-central Caribbean through the upcoming weekend and strong
to near gale force winds off Colombia through Wed night. Fresh
to locally strong winds are expected in the Windward Passage and
Gulf of Honduras through Wed. The northern part of a tropical
wave over the far western Caribbean will west of the basin
tonight. Another tropical wave farther east in the central
Atlantic will approach the eastern Caribbean by Thu night,
and move across the central Caribbean during the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak surface trough extends from just north of Freeport
Bahamas to a 1014 mb low north of the area at 33N77W. Only
isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted north of 28N and
west of 74W. This trough ill remain nearly stationary through
Wed, then shift westward as high pressure builds north the
region. Light to gentle winds cover the Florida Straits, the
northwestern and central Bahamas, and the area north of 24N and
west of 72W. Slightly farther east, an area of upper- level
diffluence and enhanced moisture continues to result in scattered
moderate convection between a line from 32N64W to 24N68W and
another line from 32N69W to 24N74W. This activity is situated to
the southeast of an upper-level trough that has an axis
extending from near 32N73W to 25N75W.

A 1022 mb high pressure center is analyzed just north of
the area near 33N57W. A couple of surface trough are over
the central Atlantic waters. The first one is analyzed from
near 23N52W to 16N56W and the second one from near 31N49W to
26N53W. Only isolated showers moving westward are possible along
and near these troughs.

$$
Aguirre
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