[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131731
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending from 04N to 24N
with axis near 25W, moving west at 10-15 kt. A large area of
enhanced moisture is seen on TPW imagery in association with this
tropical wave. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120
nm of the wave axis from 07N-14N.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 05N to
23N with axis near 37W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 150 nm of the wave axis from
05N-10N.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 75W,
moving westward at 20 kt. A plume of enhanced moisture
accompanies this tropical wave, as seen on TPW imagery. Isolated
showers and tstorms are seen within 120 nm of the wave axis from
12N-18N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed from the coast of Africa near
19N16W to 09N29W to 08N45W. The ITCZ extends from 08N45W to
08N59W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the section
above, scattered moderate convection is from 06N-12N between
15W-20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper-level anticyclonic flow is over the southeastern Gulf. Mid-
level troughing extends along the eastern seaboard of the U.S.
southwestward to the NE Gulf. Mid-level troughing is also over
the SW Gulf. A surface ridge extends from the Bermuda High to the
Florida Straits to the central Gulf. The western and central Gulf
are free of any significant precipitation. Isolated to scattered
showers and tstorms are found over portions of the eastern Gulf,
and near the U.S. Gulf Coast from New Orleans Louisiana to Naples
Florida.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters into mid week producing
mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas with the
exception of moderate to locally fresh winds near the W coast of
the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. Looking ahead, the
ridge will shift north starting mid week, ahead of a trough that
will cross Florida and move into the southeast Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the Caribbean.

Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends over the NW Caribbbean,
where light to gentle winds are seen north of 18.5N on the
latest ASCAT pass. Relatively dry air due to Saharan dust
covers most of the eastern Caribbean east of 72W. In the
far SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is
inducing scattered strong convection mainly south of 11N
between 77W-84W. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong
trades across the central portion of the basin, with
moderate trades elsewhere south of 18.5N.

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge N of the area
and the Colombian low will maintain fresh to strong trade winds
in the south-central Caribbean through Fri. Fresh to locally
strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed
night. A tropical wave over the central Caribbean will reach the
western basin by tonight and move out of the basin by early Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A strong mid- to upper-level trough located over the far eastern
U.S. just inland from the Atlantic seaboard is inducing large
scale rising motion ahead of it over the far western Atlantic.
TPW imagery shows enhanced moisture being drawn north-
northeastward from the Florida Straits and Bahamas. Scattered
moderate showers and tstorms are seen from 23N-32N between 73W-
79W, with scattered lighter to moderate showers extending
eastward from there to 65W. Fresh S winds are seen on the latest
ASCAT pass north of 27N between 73W-78W. A 1023 mb high is near
29N59W. A broad surface ridge extends SW from the high, south of
the weather described above, toward Cuba.

Fresh southerly winds are expected to continue over the waters
north of 27N between 70W and 80W through tonight due to the
pressure gradient between high pressure to the east and lower
pressure over Florida. Otherwise, expect fresh to locally
strong winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola through the
end of this week.

$$
Hagen
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