[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081801
TWDAT

000
AXNT20 KNHC 081700
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An area of low pressure centered inland over coastal South
Carolina, continues to produce a large area of disorganized
rainshowers across parts of the southeastern United States, with
widespread showers and thunderstorms extending east and
northeastward for a few hundred miles over the adjacent offshore
waters. The low pressure center is expected to move east-
northeastward toward the coast later today then turn
northeastward near or just offshore of the Carolinas and the mid-
Atlantic states on Thursday and Friday. A tropical or
subtropical cyclone may form during this time if the low
pressure center moves over water. The low center is expected to
produce locally heavy rainfall that may cause flash flooding in
parts of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states during the
next few days. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone,
during the next 48 hours, is medium. Please see the Tropical
Weather Outlook, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W from 19N
southward, moving westward 10-15 knots. Saharan air and
an associated low level wind surge have moved well ahead of
this wave, and can be seen from 10N to 22N, across the
Atlantic Ocean to the Lesser Antilles. Widely scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W S of 21N,
moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
north of Puerto Rico from 19N-22N between 65W-69W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is is over the SW Caribbean S of 13N. scattered
showers are elsewhere within 180 nm of the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 88W from 19N
southward, mostly across Central America, moving west at
10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate to convection is within
180 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 13N26W. The ITCZ continues from 13N26W to
08N36W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 07N40W and
continues to N Brazil near 04N51W. Besides the convection
mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered showers are
within 180 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high is centered over the E Gulf of Mexico near 26N87W.
Radar imagery shows scattered moderate convection over the
central Florida near Orlando. Scattered shower are over
S Florida and the Straits of Florida. Similar showers are south
of the Florida Panhandle. Anticyclonic wind flow continues across
the basin, with fresh SE to S winds generally W of 93W, where
seas are 3-5 ft.

Surface high pressure will remain centered over the Gulf through
the weekend with the high center fluctuating between the NW and
NE basin. This will allow for the continuation of moderate to
fresh return flow west of 90W and moderate westerly winds across
NE portions of the basin. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms is forecast for the NE portions of the basin Fri
and Sat as the tail end of a frontal system moves across the
area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Three tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See above. Strong
trade winds are south of 13N offshore of Colombia where seas are
7-8 ft. Fresh to locally strong ESE winds are moving into the NE
Caribbean behind a tropical wave.

Atlantic high pressure extending to the northern Caribbean
waters will allow the continuation of fresh to strong trade
winds in the south-central Caribbean increasing to near gale
force Fri and Sat nights. Freshening winds, building seas and
active weather accompanying a strong tropical wave along 77W
will shift W across the basin through Fri. Strong winds will
pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras Fri night through the
weekend. Another strong tropical wave will reach the tropical N
Atlantic waters Sat and move across the E Caribbean Sat night
and Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is over the far W Atlantic N of
28N and W of 68W. The tail end of a prefrontal trough is also
over the W Atlantic from 31N53W to 28N63W. Isolated moderate
convection is within 90 nm of the trough. A 1028 mb high is
over the Azores near 40N25W.

Over the western Atlantic, surface ridging will strengthen
across the region later today through Sat. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds will affect most of the area N of 23N Wed through
Sat night. Low pressure across the SE U.S. will move NE and
approach the coast of the Carolinas tonight through Thu, dragging
a trough across the northern Florida offshore waters. A strong
tropical wave will reach the SE waters Sun.

$$
FORMOSA
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