[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040611
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sat Jul 04 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1011 mb low pressure center is about 480 nm to the E of the NE
coast of Florida, and about 400 nm to the WSW of Bermuda.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 100 nm to
the SSE of the low pressure center. Recent satellite-derived
surface wind data indicate that the wind speeds have increased
to 25-30 kt, and that the circulation has become better defined.
It is possible that a tropical depression may form overnight, or
early on Saturday, while the system moves eastward about 15 mph,
if this recent development trend continues. The environmental
conditions are expected to become unfavorable for significant
development to occur, by Sunday night. Interests in Bermuda
should monitor the progress of this system. The chance for
development into a tropical cyclone in 48 hours is medium.

A stationary front extends from 30N77W, through NE Florida, and
beyond south central Georgia. precipitation: scattered moderate
to widely scattered strong covers the waters that are from the
NW Bahamas near 26N to 29N between 77W and the Florida coast.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS...
Gale-force winds are present in the METEO-FRANCE areas of:
AGADIR and CANARIAS. Please refer to the webpage:
www.gmdss.org/II.html, and the link for the HIGH SEAS WARNING,
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W from 19N southward,
moving westward 15 to 20 knots.
Precipitation: the wave is moving through the area of nearby
ITCZ precipitation.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W/42W, from 15N
southward moving westward 10 to 15 knots.
Precipitation: the wave is moving through the area of nearby
ITCZ precipitation.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W/52W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 20 knots. No significant convection
is associated with this wave at this time.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W/83W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 20 knots. Upper level anticyclonic
wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow, with an inverted trough, covers the
rest of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough extends from
10N74W in Colombia, toward the west-southwest, beyond 08N in
Panama along 81W/82W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous
strong is from 13N to 15N between 79W and 82W. Scattered
moderate to widely scattered strong is in clusters, from 05N to
10N in Colombia, between its border with NW Venezuela and 80W in
the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate to locally strong
is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 19N southward
from the tropical wave westward.

A tropical wave is along 95W/96W from 19N in southern Mexico
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N southward from
the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
The Gambia and Senegal, to 12N20W, and to 11N28W. The ITCZ
continues from 11N28W, to 11N30W, and 07N40W, to 07N44W, and to
06N50W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
within 600 nm to the south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, and
within 300 nm to the north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough extends from the coastal waters of the
Florida Panhandle, northeastward, beyond 32N76W in the Atlantic
Ocean. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of
Mexico from 26N southward. The anticyclonic wind flow is related
to the upper level anticyclonic wind flow that covers the
Caribbean Sea from 70W westward. Broad upper level anticyclonic
wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. This area of
anticyclonic wind flow is related to an anticyclonic circulation
center that is NW Mexico.

A tropical wave is along 95W/96W from 19N in southern Mexico
southward, moving westward 10 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 20N southward from the western coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula westward.

A 1017 mb high pressure center is near 26N92W.

High pressure will persist along 25N-26N through early next
week. Moderate to fresh SE flow will develop over the waters W
of 87W Sun night through the middle of next week, as high
pressure shifts eastward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W from 19N
southward, moving westward 20 knots.
This wave has been surrounded by Saharan dust, although not as
much as in recent days. Precipitation: widely scattered to
scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 12N southward
between 60W and the tropical wave. The precipitation is near:
Trinidad and Tobago, and the coastal plains and coastal waters
of Venezuela. The base of the upper level trough, that extends
southwestward from the Atlantic Ocean 27N53W upper level
cyclonic circulation center, is reaching the area of the
tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 20 to 25 knots.
The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia
beyond Panama and southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 18N southward between the tropical wave and 85W.

A ridge in the western Atlantic Ocean will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds in the south-central
Caribbean through the middle of next week. Locally strong winds
are expected Sun night in the Gulf of Honduras, followed by
pulses of fresh winds through early next week. The winds and the
seas will increase in the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean on Mon and
Tue, with the passage of a tropical wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1011 mb low pressure center is about 480 nm to the E of the NE
coast of Florida, and about 400 nm to the WSW of Bermuda.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 100 nm to
the SSE of the low pressure center. Recent satellite-derived
surface wind data indicate that the wind speeds have increased,
and that the circulation has become better defined. It is
possible that a tropical depression may form overnight, or early
on Saturday, while the system moves eastward about 15 mph, if
this recent development trend continues. The environmental
conditions are expected to become unfavorable for significant
development to occur, by Sunday night. Interests in Bermuda
should monitor the progress of this system. The chance for
development into a tropical cyclone in 48 hours is medium.

A stationary front extends from 30N77W, through NE Florida, and
beyond south central Georgia. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to widely scattered strong covers the waters that are from the
NW Bahamas near 26N to 29N between 77W and the Florida coast.

A ridge will persist roughly along 25N through Sun, then
gradually move northward through early next
week. A 1011 mb low pressure center near 30N74W will move
eastward across the waters N of 27N through Sat night, bringing
fresh winds and scattered showers and thunderstorms. A cold
front will stall and weaken near 31N tonight into Sat.

$$
mt
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