[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc extending from 05N to 16N
with axis near 31W, moving 10-15 kt. A great portion of the wave
is embedded in the dry Saharan Air Layer. Upper level diffluence
support scattered moderate convection in the portion of the wave
in the vicinity of the monsoon trough from 06N-11N between 26W-
35W.

A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles, extending from 06N-
19N, with axis near 56W, moving at 10 kt. The wave is in the
leading edge of a Saharan Air Layer outbreak and is embedded in a
strong wind shear environment that is limiting the convection to
scattered showers from 15N to 19N between 55W and 61W and S of 10N
between 52W-60W.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean S of 18N with axis near 65W,
moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is in a strong wind shear
environment, which is hindering deep convection. Shallow moisture
and upper level diffluence support scattered showers from 12N-14N
between 62W-68W.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean S of 19N, with axis near
80W, moving W at 15-20 kt. Deep layered moisture associated with
the monsoon trough and upper level divergence support scattered
moderate convection and isolated tstms S of 13N W of 76W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 12N16W
to 08N22W to 05N42W. The ITCZ begins near 05N42W and continues to
05N50W to 06N57W. Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 07N-11N
between 16W-24W, and from 03N-09N between 35W-42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Mostly stable weather conditions prevail across the Gulf under the
influence of surface ridging and a middle level high. Geocolor
satellite imagery continue to show a plume of Saharan dust over
the western half of the basin, which is maintainig hazy conditions
as being reported by surface observations mainly over the NW Gulf
of Mexico and inland observations along the coast of Mexico. In
the NE Gulf, in the area of the Florida panhandle and the Big
Bend, middle to upper level diffluence and shallow moisture
support scattered heavy showers and tstms along a surface trough
that crossed the northern Florida peninsula.

Surface high pressure will prevail through the weekend. This
pattern will support gentle to moderate return flow W of 90W and
lighter variable winds elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Geocolor satellite imagery continue to show Saharan dust moving
across the basin supporting haze in several regions. There are two
tropical waves moving across the basin. The westernmost wave
supports showers and tstms over Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama
adjacent waters while the wave in the E Caribbean lacks deep
convection due to strong wind shear and dry air. See tropical
waves section for further details. Otherwise, shallow moisture
and middle to upper level diffluence support scattered showers and
tstms N of 20N between 80W-84W.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will maintain
fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through
Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle to upper level low supports a surface trough over the NW
forecast waters that is generating scattered heavy showers and
tstms. The remainder Atlc waters N of 20N are under the influence
of the Azores high and generally fair weather.

A ridge will prevail across the area through the weekend. A weak
trough will linger off the coast of northern Florida through Thu.
A weak cold front will stall east of the Georgia coast this
weekend.

$$
Ramos
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