[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010518
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1218 AM EST Sat Feb 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A cold front is along 31N39W 26N48W, to a 1014 mb low pressure
center that is near 26N53W, and then continuing to 24N59W, and
to 23N67W. Expect gale-force NE winds, and sea heights ranging
from 9 feet to 11 feet, from 26N to 29N between 53W and 60W.

...WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

The 36-hour position of a cold front, based on the forecast at
01/0000 UTC, will be from 31N66W to 21.5N77W. Expect gale-force
SW winds and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to 14 feet, from
29N to 31N between 60W and 67W.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go
to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
everything from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Guinea and Sierra Leone, near 09N13W, to 05N18W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N18W, to the Equator along 30W, to the coast of
Brazil near 05S37W. Precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong
within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 20W and 29W. Isolated moderate
is elsewhere from 05N southward between 10W and 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through the Atlantic Ocean near
32N79W, to 31N80W. A warm front continues from 31N80W to Florida
near 29N82W, to a NE Gulf of Mexico 1014 mb low pressure center
that is near 28N84W. A cold front continues from the 1014 mb low
pressure center, to 22N90W off the coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula, curving to 20N93W, and ending at the northern part of
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A squall line is
along 26N81W 23N87W. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 26N
southward from 88W eastward, and from central Guatemala to the
eastern half of the Yucatan Peninsula.

A squall line will move E from the SE Gulf over S Florida
tonight. The current 1014 mb low pressure center will shift to
the E of the area tonight. The cold front will sweep across the
rest of the eastern Gulf of Mexico and across Florida through
late Saturday. Strong to near gale-force winds in the SW Gulf of
Mexico will subside, as high pressure builds in the western Gulf
of Mexico. The high pressure will pass E, across the Gulf of
Mexico on Sunday and Monday, in advance of another cold front
that will be moving off the Texas coast late on Tuesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 250 mb, for 500 mb, and for 700 mb, shows
upper level anticyclonic wind flow in the Caribbean Sea. An
upper level anticyclonic circulation center is about 150 nm to
the east of the Saint Lucia at 500 mb, and between the SE
Bahamas and Hispaniola at 700 mb.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is apparent in water vapor
imagery. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent also,
within 120 nm to 180 nm of the line from Nicaragua, to 17N75W,
to Puerto Rico.

Fresh to strong winds are expected in the south central
Caribbean Sea through the middle of next week, as high pressure
builds to the north of the region. The wind speeds will pulse to
near gale-force near the coast of Colombia each night. Gentle to
moderate trade winds will increase to fresh speeds elsewhere in
the Caribbean Sea during this weekend. The wind speeds and the
sea heights will increase on Saturday night and Sunday, behind a
cold front that will be entering the NW Caribbean Sea. Strong
winds will develop to the lee of Cuba, and through the Windward
Passage, on Sunday night and Monday. The front will stall on
Monday, from Hispaniola to the NW Caribbean Sea. The front will
weaken and dissipate on Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N79W to 31N80W. A warm front
continues from 31N80W to Florida near 29N82W, to a NE Gulf of
Mexico 1014 mb low pressure center that is near 28N84W.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong in the SE part of
Florida. Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 30N
northward from 70W westward. Isolated moderate elsewhere from
24N northward from 70W westward.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the area
from 24N northward between 40W and 60W. A cold front passes
through 32N38W to 26N47W, to a 1014 mb low pressure center that
is near 26N53W. The cold front continues from the 1014 mb low
pressure center to 24N60W and 23N67W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate covers the area that is from 23N northward between 29W
and 50W.

The current eastern Gulf of Mexico cold front will sweep across
the region from Saturday through Sunday. Expect strong to near
gale-force winds and building seas north of 27N, with minimal
gale-force winds possible ahead of the front E of 70W on Sunday.
The winds and seas will subside early next week, as high
pressure following the front moves E along 29N.

$$
mt
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