[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271020
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
520 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges offshore of Liberia near 06N10W then
continues to 03N14W. The ITCZ extends from 03N14W to 01S30W to
the coast of Brazil near 02S42W. Scattered showers are along the
monsoon trough and ITCZ between 09W-23W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection fired during the overnight hours from
00N-02N between 30W-41W. Additional moderate to strong convection
is present from 02N southward near the coast of Brazil between
44W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1011 mb low pressure is centered near 28N89W with a trailing
cold front extending SW to 21N97W just N of Tampico, Mexico and
a warm front extends to the east of the low to 27N85W. Scattered
showers and isolated tstorms are east of the front from 22N north
to the northeast Gulf coast in north central FL. Abundance cloud
layer is spread across the FL Peninsula associated to the front.
To the south, a surface trough is in the Bay of Campeche near
19N90W to 22N89W with a few showers near the trough and the coast
of Mexico. In the eastern Gulf coast, a 1018 mb high pressure is
located near 29N81W and will gradually moves east today. ASCAT
data indicates moderate westerly winds in the NW Gulf near the
low pressure. Light and gentle winds prevail in the western Gulf
and the Bay of Campeche.

Low pressure over the NW Gulf will track eastward across the
remainder of the north-central Gulf through the morning hours,
reaching S Florida by early Tue while the front sags S and slowly
dissipates. Another cold front will move off the Texas coast Tue
night, weakening by the time it reaches the SE Gulf Wed night
ahead of a third front, which may impact the basin by the end of
the week. It is expected to be followed by fresh to strong
northerly winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Light to moderate winds dominate the Caribbean basin, except near
the coast of Colombia where fresh northeasterly winds are occurring.
A surface trough extends from 11N69W to 18N66W and is supporting
scattered showers along and within 180 nm east of the trough axis.
Scattered showers are seen over the Greater Antilles and the U.S.
Virgin Islands. Upper-level ridging dominates across the basin
with abundant drier air limiting convection west of 69W.

Relatively weak high pressure across the region will maintain
rather quiet conditions over the forecast waters allowing for
generally gentle to moderate winds, except for fresh winds near
the coast of Colombia during the afternoons and night time hours
through Wed, increasing to fresh to strong speeds Thu night
through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is seen near the Florida coast extending from the
27N79W to 24N80W in the Florida Straits. Scattered showers are in
the vicinity of the trough. A cold front enters the forecast area
from 31N64W south to 24N74W in the central Bahamas, then a surface
trough extends across the Bahamas to 23N77W. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of the front. A stationary front is present over the
central Atlantic from 31N39W to 18N57W with scattered showers and
tstorms in the vicinity. Scattered showers are mostly north of 19N
between 40W-45W. To the east, a surface ridge prevails across the
region as a 1028 mb high remains in control.

The weak cold front will slowly move east today while dissipating.
Another cold front will move into the northern portion by Mon
night, eventually stalling along 26N by mid-week and then lifting
northward, with a reinforcing front dropping south Thu night and
Fri.

$$
Torres
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