[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251703
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1203 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends just south of the coast of Nigeria and
Ghana, along the coast of Ivory Coast, inland over Liberia and
emerges offshore of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, then continues to
05N17W. The ITCZ extends from 05N17W to 01N24W to 00N37W to the
coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
from 04S-03N between 17W-27W, and from 02N-05N between 26W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 25/1500 UTC, a weak cold front extends from the Florida Keys
to the N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near 21.5N88W. Isolated
showers are along the front east of 86W. Scattered showers are
ahead of the front over the Florida Straits. A 1023 mb high over
SW Mississippi extends surface ridging over most of the Gulf
behind the front. Dry air is behind the front, especially over the
eastern Gulf. Isolated light showers are seen in the west-central
Gulf offshore lower Texas and northeastern Mexico. The most
recent ASCAT pass shows moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds
across much of the Gulf.

The weak cold front from the Florida Keys to the N coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula will lift northward over the central Gulf on
Sun as a warm front, ahead of a low pressure system moving off the
Texas coast. Strong thunderstorms containing gusty winds are
possible Sunday over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
in association with the low. The low will move eastward into the
central Gulf Mon and weaken. Looking ahead, another weak low
pressure area will move into the northwest Gulf Tue, shifting E-SE
through Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a stationary front is over the Leeward Islands
from 19N60W to 17N65W, dissipating to 17N70W. 24-hour rainfall
totals for the period that ended at 25/1200 UTC were 1.72 inches
at San Juan Puerto Rico according to the Pan American Temperature
and Precipitation Tables...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC. The scattered
showers associated with the stationary front have moved south of
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.
Elsewhere, a surface trough along 66W from 10N-16N is producing
isolated showers within 60 nm of its axis. A surface trough along
75/76W from 09N-15N is producing isolated to scattered showers
along and within 120 nm W of its axis from 09N-13N. A weak cold
front over the SE Gulf of Mexico is approaching the Yucatan
Channel with isolated showers. The latest ASCAT pass shows
moderate N winds over the SW Caribbean, with gentle wind speeds
elsewhere.

The weakening stationary front south of Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands will gradually dissipate today. Benign marine conditions
will prevail the rest of the forecast period as a weak pressure
gradient dominates the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 25/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from 32N76W to Miami
Florida to the N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near 21.5N88W.
Scattered showers and tstorms are along and within 90 nm ahead of
the front, north of 27.5N and east of 78.5W. Isolated to scattered
showers are ahead of the front to the east of South Florida and in
the Florida Straits. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh NW winds
between the front and the SE coast of the U.S., north of 26.5N.

An occluded 1007 mb low is near 31N59W moving E-NE. A cold front
extends from a triple point north of the area to 32N52W to 26N53W
to 20N59W, then continues as a stationary front to 17N65W. The
portion of the front south of 25N is moving into an area of low-
to mid-level ridging and subsidence. Isolated showers are along
and within 120 nm ahead of the front. A surface trough is along
53W from 11N-18N with isolated showers.

A weak upper-level trough axis is seen around 20N-31N between
40W-45W. An area of upper-level divergence just west of the axis
is enhancing scattered moderate rainshowers from 22N-28N between
42W-49W. Another upper-level trough axis extends from the Canary
Islands to near 20N30W. This trough is enhancing scattered showers
and isolated tstorms inside the area enclosed by the points 22N19W
to 14N31W to 14N22W to 18N15W to 22N15W to 22N19W.

Seas in excess of 8 ft, mostly due to northeast swell, will
subside tonight for much of the western Atlantic, east of the
Bahamas. The weak cold front from 32N76W to Miami will reach from
Bermuda to western Cuba on Sun, then dissipate Mon night. Looking
ahead, a front will move across south Florida and the Bahamas
early next week.

$$
Hagen
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