[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242342
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
642 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near
09N13W and extends to 07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W to
03N28W to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. No significant
convection is related to these boundaries at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the basin from the Florida Panhandle
near 30N83W to 24N89W to 22N95W. A surface trough extends across
the Bay of Campeche from 21N97W to 18N94W. Scattered showers are
noted along and southeast of the front/trough, including showers
moving into central and southern Florida. The latest ASCAT pass
depicts fresh northerly winds behind the front with gentle to
moderate variable winds across the basin.

The cold front will stretch from SW Florida to the Bay of
Campeche by early Saturday. The front will lift N over the
western Gulf through late Sunday as a warm front, ahead of a low
pres system moving off the coast of Texas Sunday. The low and a
trailing cold front will move into the SW Gulf Monday as the low
pressure weakens. Looking ahead, another weak low pres area will
move off the Texas coast Tuesday, shifting E-SE through Wednesday
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends across the northeast Caribbean from
18N62W to 15N70W. A surface trough extends from 15N70W to 11N73W.
Scattered showers are noted within 75 nm on either sides of the
front/trough, affecting the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and
adjacent waters. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle
trades prevailing across the basin.

The stationary front will gradually dissipate tonight. Benign
marine conditions will prevail the rest of the forecast period as
a weak pressure gradient dominates the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1005 mb surface low is centered near 31N59W. A cold front
enters the waters near 31N56W and stretches SW to the Leeward
Islands near 18N63W. A surface trough behind the front is analyzed
from 25N59W to 23N70W. Showers are seen along the front. Scattered
showers are noted from 22N-31N between 42W-52W. A surface trough
is noted in the central Atlantic from 25N30W to 19N34W. Isolated
thunderstorms are north of the Cabo Verde Islands from 18N-24N
between 21W-27W. Scatterometer data depicts strong winds mainly
north of 20N and west of 50W, with near gale winds north of 27N
between 53W-58W.

The cold front will stall and weaken tonight. Lingering moderate
fresh northerly winds behind the front will gradually diminish
this evening while large seas will continue to propagate SE and
subside this weekend. Another cold front will move off the
southeast U.S. coast Saturday morning, reach from Bermuda to
western Cuba on Sunday, then weaken Monday. Looking ahead, a weak
low along a front will move across south Florida to the Bahamas
early next week.

$$
AKR
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