[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231744
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1244 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A 1002 mb low pressure center is near 29N64W. An occluded front
extends from the low to a triple point near 31N61W. A cold front
extends from 31N61W to 24N63W to 19N68.5W. A surface trough
extends from the low to 26N68W to 24N74W. The latest ASCAT pass
shows a large area of 35-40 kt gales north and west of the low,
north of 28N and east of 68W. There is also a small area of gales
along the cold front north of 28N. The forecast is for the low
pressure to move slowly northeastward and north of the area during
the next 24 hours. From now until 0600 UTC Friday, gales are
forecast for the area north of 28N between 61W-68W, but near gales
along the cold front will extend as far east as 55W. Seas of 17 to
23 ft are expected in the area. See the latest NWS High Seas
forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
and extends to 03N13W. The ITCZ continues from 03N13W to 01N21W to
02N34W to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate
convection is along the ITCZ and monsoon trough between the coast
of Africa and 23W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 23/1500 UTC, a cold front has moved off the Texas coast into
the NW Gulf and extends from Beaumont Texas to Padre Island to
26N102W. A warm front is along the coast of Louisiana from 30N93W
to 29N89W. A pre-frontal surface trough extends from 29.5N93.5W to
27.5N94W to 26N96W. Scattered moderate convection is seen inside
the area bounded by 30N92W to 25N96.5W to 28.5N88.5W to 31N88W to
30N92W. Isolated showers are elsewhere across the central and
northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh to
strong S winds east of the surface trough and south of the warm
front, north of 26N. Fresh to strong E to SE winds cover portions
of the NE Gulf. Gentle winds are in the south-central Gulf.

Strong S winds will continue today in advance of the cold front
that just emerged off the TX coast. By Fri evening, the front will
stretch from N of Tampa Bay to the Bay of Campeche, and then move
SE of the Gulf Sat evening. Fresh N winds are expected behind the
front. The next cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf by
Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from the eastern Dominican Republic near
19N68.5W to 15N74W to 10N80W. Fresh N winds are behind the front
from 09N-14N between 78W-82W, with moderate N winds elsewhere
behind the front. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are near
the front south of 12N and west of 78W. Isolated to scattered
showers are over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Gentle
trades are seen over the basin east of 73W and SE of the front.

The northern portion of the cold front will continue moving
eastward and will stall across the Virgin Islands on Fri. The
southern portion of the front will stall tonight and dissipate.
Fri through early next week, benign marine conditions will prevail
as a weak pressure gradient dominates the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect north of 28N between 60W-68W. See
section above for details.

A cold front extends from 31N61W to 24N63W to 19N68.5W. An upper-
level low near 30N63W is enhancing scattered moderate convection
that extends from 60 to 240 nm ahead of the front from 21N-25N,
and from 60 to 360 nm ahead of the front from 25N-31N. The latest
ASCAT pass shows strong to near gale S winds within 240 nm east
of the cold front, from 22N-31N.

A surface trough extends from a 1002 mb low near 29N64W to 26N68W
to 24N74W. Aside from the area of gale force winds mentioned in
the section above, ASCAT shows strong to near gale force NE winds
from 25N-31N between the surface trough and 80W. Scattered showers
are between the northwest Bahamas and the east coast of southern
and central Florida. Isolated showers are possible elsewhere north
of 27N and west of 73W.

Farther E, a 1016 mb low is near 24N41W. A surface trough extends
from the low to 25N46W to 30N49W. Isolated showers are near the
trough axis. A separate 1016 mb low is near 27N35W. A surface
trough extends from the low to 24N33W to 17N37W. An upper-level
low near 26N34W is enhancing scattered moderate convection from
22N-28N between 28W-34W. Fresh to strong SE winds extend out to
360 nm east of the second low, east of the surface trough.

The 1002 mb low pressure system over the western Atlantic near
29N64W will move slowly NE and away from the region Fri. Gales to
the N and W of the low will prevail through 0600 UTC Fri before N
winds begin to diminish. Very large seas associated with the
gales will propagate across much of the SW N Atlantic through Fri,
then slowly subside this weekend. A cold front will move off the
SE U.S. coast Sat morning, then reach from Bermuda across the
central Bahamas to western Cuba by Sun.

$$
Hagen
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