[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220535
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A 1011 mb low pressure center has developed near 28N75W, in the
western Atlantic Ocean. The forecast is for the low pressure
center to deepen during the next few days, leading to a tight
pressure gradient. Gale-force winds are present now, from 30.5N
to 31N between 78W and 79W. The sea heights are ranging from 14
feet to 18 feet. The 24-hour forecast consists of the low
pressure center having moved eastward by about 540 nm, gale-
force winds , and sea heights ranging from 13 feet to 17 feet,
from 29N to 31N between 64W and 75W. Please read the latest HIGH
SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE
FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, the NWS National
Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W to 04N17W, to
03N28W, and to the Equator along 33W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 08N southward between
10W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through Louisiana to the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico.

High pressure in the central U.S.A. will continue to drive
strong N winds across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through
tonight, behind a NW Caribbean Sea cold front. The wind speeds
in the eastern Gulf of Mexico will weaken, and strong southerly
return flow will develop in the NW Gulf of Mexico, as the high
pressure slides east by Wednesday. A cold front, moving into the
NW Gulf of Mexico by Thursday, will shift fresh return flow to
the N central then NE Gulf of Mexico between Thursday night and
Friday, which will bring an end to the strong winds. This front
will shift slowly E across the Gulf, and reach from the Florida
Big Bend region to Tampico Mexico by Friday evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, across SE Cuba,
to northern Nicaragua. Precipitation: isolated moderate within
120 nm on either side of the cold front.

Long-period N swell, producing high seas and hazardous
surf across the Tropical North Atlantic Ocean and along exposed
Atlantic Ocean coasts of the Lesser Antilles, will diminish on
Wednesday. A cold front, that stretches from central Cuba to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border this evening, should continue moving
southeastward and reach from E Cuba to near the Nicaragua-Panama
border by Wednesday afternoon, and then dissipate by Thursday
afternoon. Strong N winds and high seas are expected behind this
front. The conditions will become quiescent across the waters
through at least Sunday night, as a weak Bermuda High develops
to the north.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N58W, to 28N63W, to a 1013 mb low
pressure center that is near 27N69W. An occluded front extends
from a 1011 mb low pressure center that is near 28N75W, to a
27N72W triple point. A cold front continues from the triple
point, across the central Bahamas and SE Cuba, to north central
Nicaragua. A surface trough is along 28N60W 23N67W, to south
central Hispaniola. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong within 300 nm to the southeast of the frontal
boundary, from Hispaniola northward from 55W westward.

A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 30N40W. A dissipating
stationary front passes through 32N36W 25N34W, and curving to
15N40W. A surface trough continues from 15N40W 12N50W 12N56W and
15N60W. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 24N northward
between 30W and 40W.

Gale-force wind speeds have developed to the northwest of the
current 1011 mb low pressure center. The gale-force wind speeds
will continue to the west or northwest of the low pressure area,
while the low pressure center moves slowly northeastward toward
Bermuda, and intensifies through Friday. The associated cold
front will move southeastward through Thursday, and reach the SE
Bahamas Wednesday afternoon, the Mona Passage on Thursday
afternoon, and then dissipate by Friday afternoon.

$$
mt
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