[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212327
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
627 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A 1011 mb low has developed in the western Atlantic, located near
28N77W at 21/2100 UTC, and will deepen over the next few days
leading to a tight pressure gradient. Gale-force winds will
develop by 22/0000 UTC from 31N-30N between 77W-79W. These gale-
force winds will come close to storm force especially in the next
day and spread from 30N-27N between 70W-80W as the low meanders
slowly eastward. Seas will range from 18-24 ft. Gale-force winds
are expected to continue through midday Thursday. See the latest
NWS Highs Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 02N30W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 00N- 07N between 11W-24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1039 mb high is centered over the middle Mississippi Valley in
the U.S. with the ridging extending across the Gulf of Mexico. A
surface trough is noted in the western Bay of Campeche from 23N98W
to 18N94W. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong
north-northeast winds across the central and eastern Gulf.
Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted in the western Gulf.

High pressure across the central U.S. will continue to drive
strong N winds across the eastern Gulf through tonight behind a
NW Caribbean cold front. As the high pressure slides east by
Wednesday, winds across the eastern Gulf will weaken and strong
southerly return flow will develop over the NW Gulf. A cold front
moving into the NW Gulf by Thursday will shift fresh return flow
to the N central then NE Gulf between Thursday night and Friday
which will bring an end the strong winds. This front will shift
slowly E across the Gulf and reach from the Florida Big Bend
region to Tampico Mexico by Friday evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from east-central Cuba to northern Honduras,
from 21N79W to 16N85W. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are
seen along and 70 nm ahead of the front. Upper level ridging
dominates the eastern Caribbean which is inhibiting deep
convection. Behind the cold front, strong to near gale-force
northerly winds are noted in the NW Caribbean. The rest of the
Caribbean has gentle to moderate trade winds.

Long-period N swell producing high seas and hazardous
surf across the Tropical North Atlantic and along exposed
Atlantic coasts of the Lesser Antilles will diminish on Wednesday.
A stationary front that stretches from central Cuba to central
Honduras this afternoon should move southeastward as a cold front
and reach from E Cuba to near the Panama-Nicaragua border by
Wednesday afternoon, then dissipate by Thursday afternoon. Behind
this front, strong N winds and high seas are expected. By late
Thursday, conditions will become quiescent across the waters
through at least Sunday night as a weak Bermuda High develops to
the north.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning over
the west Atlantic waters.

A cold front stretches across the western Atlantic from 31N62W to
east-central Cuba near 22N77W. The 1011 mb low associated with
the gale-force winds has a trough extending east of the low from
28N77W to 27N73W. Isolated thunderstorms are noted along and north
of this trough. A stationary front is noted across the central
Atlantic from 31N34W to 15N39W to 15N59W. Scattered moderate
convection is near the northern portion of the front from 27N-33N
between 31N-34W.

Diffluence from an upper level trough in the central Atlantic is
aiding in scattered showers moving across the eastern Atlantic to
the western African coast, including the Cabo Verde Islands. This
activity is observed from 06N-17N between 16W- 35W. A 1021 mb high
is analyzed near 29N49W. The latest scatterometer data depicts
fresh to strong NE winds behind the cold front in the western
Atlantic, with fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of it. Near
the stationary front in the central Atlantic, strong to near gale-
force cyclonic winds are noted near a low from 30N-34N between
38W-43W.

Gales will develop to the northwest and west of the low tonight
through Wednesday, while the low moves slowly northeastward
toward Bermuda and intensifies through Friday. N gales will shift
northeastward with the low and exit the NE waters by Friday. The
associated cold front will move southeastward through Thursday
and reach the SE Bahamas by Wednesday afternoon, the Mona Passage
Thursday afternoon, then dissipate by Friday afternoon.

$$
AKR
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