[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1150 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

The 15-hour forecast, starting at 21/2100 UTC, on Tuesday
afternoon, consists of: a cold front will be to the east of the
Bahamas. A 1012 mb low pressure center is forecast to develop
along the cold front near 27N75W. Gale-force N winds, and sea
heights ranging from 11 feet to 14 feet, will develop from 30N
to 31N northward between 77W and 79W. The gale-force winds will
develop in the area of the pressure gradient, between the low
pressure center, and high pressure building into the SE U.S.A.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go
to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W, to
02N27W, crossing the Equator along 31W, to 01S36W.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong is to the south and southeast of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ from 22W eastward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere
from 09N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The GFS model for 250 mb, for 500 mb, and for 700 mb, shows
a NE-to-SW oriented trough, at all levels.

A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico,
along the coast of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate
rainshowers are in the SW corner of the area, from 23N southward
from 90W westward.

A surface ridge has developed from the lower Texas Gulf coast,
to the coastal plains of Mexico near 20N.

Strong winds, early this morning offshore Veracruz Mexico, will
diminish to fresh this afternoon. Strong north wind will prevail
today and tonight in the eastern Gulf. The wind speeds in the
eastern Gulf of Mexico will slow down, and strong southerly
winds will evolve in the NW Gulf, as high pressure slides E on
Wednesday. A cold front, moving into the NW Gulf on Thursday,
will end the strong winds. This front will cross the Gulf of
Mexico by Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An Atlantic Ocean cold front cuts across central Cuba, into the
N sections of Belize and the N sections of Guatemala.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 13N northward from
76W westward.

The GFS model for 250 mb shows upper level anticyclonic wind
flow with a ridge, that spans the entire area. The GFS model for
500 mb shows a trough extending from SE Cuba, across Jamaica,
toward the coast of Panama along 80W. The GFS model for 700 mb
shows a cyclonic circulation center that is about 135 nm to the
south of Jamaica.

A surface trough extends from the northern sections of Colombia,
to 06N79W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
multilayered moisture and rainshowers cover the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, from 12N southward from 76W westward, and in
parts of Panama and Costa Rica.

Long-period north swell will continue to result in large seas
and hazardous marine conditions, across the Tropical North
Atlantic Ocean, and in the Atlantic Ocean, facing parts of the
Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico into tonight, before gradually
diminishing. A cold front, that stretches from central Cuba to
northern Belize early this morning, will continue to move S and
reach from eastern Cuba to Honduras by this evening, then from
Hispaniola to Costa Rica by Wednesday night. Strong north winds
and higher seas are expected behind this cold front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N61W,
through 28N70W, beyond central Cuba, into the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered
moderate within 180 nm to the E and SE of the cold front, from
23N northward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
possible rainshowers are elsewhere within 210 nm to the E and SE
of the cold front. A surface trough is along 29N78W 28N74W
29N70W.

An area of upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean from 14N to 32N between 24W and 46W. The upper level
cyclonic wind flow is supporting a cold front that passes
through 32N32W to 25N32W to 20N34W. The cold front is
dissipating from 20N34W to 16N40W, and 14N46W. A dissipating
stationary front continues from 14N46W to 17N60W and 20N69W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 26N
northward between the cold front and 34W. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere
within 360 nm to the south of the dissipating stationary front
between 50W and 60W, and within 120 nm to the E, the SE, and the
S of the frontal boundary.

A surface trough passes through the coastal area of the Western
Sahara near 24N16W, to 25N21W, and to 28N26W. No significant
deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

The current western Atlantic Ocean cold front will slow down
today, as low pressure forms along it to the east of the
Bahamas. A very tight pressure gradient will develop between the
low pressure center and strong high pressure in the SE U.S.A.,
as this low pressure center moves slowly NE toward Bermuda
through Thursday. Gale-force winds will develop by this evening
off the N coast of Florida, and then spread across most areas N
of 27N and W of 67W during the next several days.

$$
mt
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