[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181129
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
629 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1110 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

See the latest NWS Highs Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details
on the special features discussed below.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

The latest ASCAT pass from 18/0214 UTC shows gale force winds off
Colombia from 10N-13N between 74W-78W. Expect gale-force winds to
continue north of Colombia today and tonight diminishing to below
gale force by late Sunday morning. Seas will range from 12 to 18
ft in this area.

...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A cold front extends from 32N47W to 25N57W to 23N63W to 22N71W to
24N82W, then continues as a stationary front to 27N88W. The latest
set of ASCAT passes from 18 January between 0000-0200 UTC show
gale force winds north 28N within 600 nm behind the front and
within 240 nm ahead of the front. Gales will spread east with the
front north of 28N through this evening. Seas will range from 16
to 23 ft near the front.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico this evening and
move eastward across the Gulf Sun into Mon. Behind the front, gale
force N winds are expected in the far west-central Gulf offshore
Tampico Sunday and Sunday night. Gales are also forecast in the
far SW Gulf off Veracruz Sunday night into Mon.

...WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LARGE SWELL...

Large northerly swell in excess of 10 ft will combine with strong
winds to produce significant wave heights in excess of 15 ft today
over a large area of the Atlantic north of 21N between 48W-71W.
Swell will affect the easternmost shores of the Bahamas today,
then gradually diminish Sunday. By tonight, the large swell will
begin to affect the north coast of Puerto Rico, Mona Passage,
Virgin and Leeward Islands, and northeast Caribbean passages. The
large swell will continue in these areas through Sunday night
before gradually diminishing on Monday.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
to 06N15W to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from 02N21W to 01N34W to
the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate with isolated
strong convection is noted near and within 180 nm north of the
ITCZ between 27W-42W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere
within 180 nm N of the ITCZ between 21W-44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the west-central and southwest
Gulf of Mexico, with gale conditions beginning on Sunday. See
section above for details.

Mid-level ridging prevails over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. A
stationary front extends from the Dry Tortugas to 27N88W, then
continues as a dissipating stationary front to 29N94W. Only
isolated showers are along the front due to subsidence from the
ridging. Strong E to SE winds around 25 kt are still being
observed over the eastern portion of the basin, mainly east of
88W. As the front dissipates today, winds and seas should subside.
A surface trough is in the far western Gulf from 18N94.5W to
24N97W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are near and north
of the trough, including the area from 23N-26N between 95W-97.5W.

A cold front will move off the Texas coast early this evening,
then move SE, reaching from Clearwater Florida to the Bay of
Campeche by Sun evening, and finally SE of the basin by early Mon.
Strong N winds will follow this cold front, and gale conditions
are expected to develop from offshore Tampico Mexico into the
western Bay of Campeche Sun and Sun night. Offshore Veracruz,
gales may persist through Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gale-force winds are noted over the south-central Caribbean off
the coast of Colombia. Also, large northerly swell is expected for
the northeast Caribbean passages on Sunday. See the sections above
for details.

Strong to near gale tradewinds prevail across the remainder of
the basin west of 70W. Moderate trades are east of 70W. Isolated
showers are seen near the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola as well as the adjacent waters. Isolated showers and
tstorms are also seen over the Gulf of Honduras. The central
Caribbean is experiencing relatively dry air due to mid-level
ridging over the region. Elsewhere, a cold front that extends from
the SE Bahamas to the Dry Tortugas is spreading cloudiness and
showers along the north coast of Cuba.

The pressure gradient between strong high pressure centered
over the SE U.S. coast and low pressure over NW Colombia will
continue to support gales off the coast of Colombia through Sun
morning, with gale force winds again pulsing Sun night. This
gradient will tighten further as the high surges south through
tonight, leading to strong to near gale force winds over much of
the central and northeast Caribbean into Sun. For most areas,
winds and seas will diminish Mon and Tue, but a cold front will
move into the NW Caribbean Mon evening, bringing strong N winds to
areas W of 80W into Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the central Atlantic. Refer to the
section above for details.

A cold front extends from 32N47W to 25N57W to 23N63W to 22N71W to
24N82W, then continues as a stationary front to 27N88W. Scattered
moderate with isolated strong convection is along and within 120
nm ahead of the front, north of 26N and east of 50W. Isolated to
scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm behind the front,
north of 28N and east of 50W. Aside from the gale force winds
discussed in the section above, strong to near gale force winds
are elsewhere north of 24N between 40W-88W. East winds of 25-30 kt
are over the northwest and central Bahamas, the Florida Straits
and the Florida Keys. Altimeter data from 18/0216 UTC indicates
significant wave heights of 18 to 20 ft in the area from 28N-31N
between 67W-70W. Surface ridging is over the far eastern
Atlantic, anchored by a 1031 mb high near 34N13W. Upper-level
troughing is producing cloudiness and scattered showers from 14N-
27N between 19W-34W.

The cold front from 23N63W to 24N82W will stall over the Greater
Antilles by this evening, then dissipate Sun. In its wake, strong
northerly winds, some near gale force, will result, with large
seas in northerly swell expected through Mon. Another cold front
will move off the SE U.S. coast Sun afternoon, then move SE across
the area through mid-week. Strong to near gale force N winds and
building seas will follow in behind this front over the NW waters
early next week.

$$
Hagen
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