[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171158
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1140 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

NE to E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 13 feet
to 17 feet, are being experienced, off the coast of Colombia,
from 11N to 12N between 74W and 77W. Expect that gale-force NE
to E winds, and sea heights ranging from 14 feet to 20 feet, in
more or less the same areas, will be continuing until at least
Saturday night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST:
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST:
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS
National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

The 12-hour forecast, starting at 17/0600 UTC, consists of a
cold front that will be extending from 31N60W to 26N72W to
26N81W. Expect that gale-force NE to E winds, and sea heights
ranging from 15 feet to 20 feet, will be covering the areas that
are from 30N to 31N between 54W and 62W. Please read the latest
HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE
FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS
National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 03N.
The monsoon trough continues from 03N at the Prime Meridian, to
03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W, to 01N32W, and to 01N41W.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally
strong from 07N southward between 10N and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front cuts across Florida, along 29N, from the Atlantic
Ocean. The front continues into the north central Gulf of
Mexico, reaching the upper Texas Gulf coast. Upper level
anticyclonic wind flow is moving on top of the cold front,
across the entire Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: rainshowers are
possible within 150 nm of the U.S.A. Gulf coast, from Texas to
Florida.

A surface ridge extends from Andros Island in the Bahamas,
through the Straits of Florida, into the west central Gulf of
Mexico, to the coast of Mexico along 24N.

The current cold front will be moving S and SW, into the N and
NE Gulf of Mexico through tonight. High pressure building in
behind this front will support strong E winds and building seas
in the eastern basin, from this afternoon through late Saturday.
A second cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday
evening. The second cold front then will extend from northern
Florida to north of Veracruz Mexico by Sunday evening. This
front will move SE of the Gulf of Mexico by Monday evening. This
front also will bring strong winds to most of the area, with
near gale-force winds in the SW Gulf of Mexico from Sunday
through early Tuesday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level NW-to-SE oriented trough extends from the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, to N Nicaragua.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 15N to 19N between 83W
and 90W, in the Gulf of Honduras, and inland in parts of
Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala, and the southernmost part
of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, in the entire Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: Rainshowers
are possible, in broken to overcast low level clouds, in the
trade wind flow, in many sections of the Caribbean Sea.

24-hour rainfall totals, in inches, that are listed for the
period that ended at 16/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC,
are: 0.15 in Curacao, and a trace in Guadeloupe.

High pressure to the north of the Caribbean Sea will support
gale-force wind speeds off the coast of Colombia through at
least Sunday morning. More gale-force wind is likely on Sunday
night. Strong to near gale-force wind speeds are to be expected
in the NW Caribbean Sea, in the wake of a cold front into
Saturday. Similar conditions can be expected in the NE Caribbean
Sea as the front passes, from Saturday evening through Sunday
night. The wind speeds will be near gale-force in the Windward
Passage. The wind speeds and the sea heights should diminish in
most areas for the start of next week. It is possible that
another cold front may bring strong NW winds to the far NW
Caribbean Sea on Monday night and Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is just to the east of Bermuda, continuing to
30N70W, to the Florida east coast along 29N. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 30N to 32N between
57W and 62W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated
moderate are to the northwest of the line from 30N60W 25N70W
25N80W. 24-hour rainfall totals, in inches, that are listed for
the period that ended at 17/0000 UTC, according to the PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC, are: 0.50 in Bermuda.

The GFS model for 250 mb and water vapor satellite imagery show
a trough that extends from 32N42W to 26N44W to 17N49W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 30N northward between
35W and 45W.

A surface ridge passes from the waters that are between the
Canary Islands and the Madeira Archipelago, to 25N29W, to a 1023
mb high pressure center that is near 26N44W. The ridge continues
from 26N44W, to 24N69W, across Andros Island in the Bahamas,
beyond the Straits of Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.

The current cold front will move southward. The front will
stretch through the central Bahamas, and into the Florida
Straits by this evening. By Saturday: this front will stall
across the Antilles. Behind the front, strong winds and large
seas can be expected through Saturday night. Another front will
move off the SE U.S. coast on Sunday night. The front will bring
fresh, possibly strong, N winds to northern waters through mid-
week.

$$
mt
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