[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

Gale-force NE-to-E winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to
14 feet, are being experienced off the coast of Colombia, from
11N to 12N between 74W and 75W. Expect gale-force NE to E winds,
and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, in more or less
the same areas, will be pulsing during the late night and
overnight hours, until at least Thursday night. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest
OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS
National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 05N10W, to 02N17W, to the Equator along 24W. The ITCZ
continues in the area that is from the Equator to 01S
between 24W and 32W, to 01S35W, to 02S41W, and to 01S46W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 05N
southward between 17W and 50W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 03N southward between 06W and 16W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the Atlantic Ocean near 29N79W,
across Florida and into the north central Gulf of Mexico.

A surface trough is in the SW corner of the area, from 19N95W to
21N96W to 24N97W, along the coast of Mexico. Precipitation: no
significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in
satellite imagery.

Areas of fog will persist within 60 nm of shore from Pensacola
Florida to Brownsville, Texas through Wednesday morning.
Return flow will dominate the Gulf of Mexico through Thursday.
A cold front will move southward, into the NE Gulf of Mexico on
Thursday evening. The front will become stationary along the
northern Gulf coast on Friday, and then dissipate late on
Friday. Return flow will establish across the basin, in advance
of the next cold front that is forecast to enter the NW basin on
Saturday night. The front will extend from Sarasota, Florida to
near Tampico Mexico on Sunday evening, and exit the Florida
Straits on Monday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 250 mb and water vapor satellite imagery show
a trough that extends from Hispaniola to Jamaica, to the border
of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Precipitation: no significant deep
convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, everywhere, in the Caribbean Sea, except for the
Greater Antilles and the NE corner of the area, and for the SE
corner of the area. Precipitation: Rainshowers are possible, in
broken to overcast low level clouds, in the trade wind flow,
except for the areas that are from 12N southward between 75W and
78W, and from 18N northward from 80W westward.

One surface trough is along 62W, from 12N southward.
Precipitation Precipitation: isolated moderate from 13N
southward between 59W and 66W.

24-hour rainfall totals, in inches, that are listed for the
period that ended at 15/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC,
are: 0.61 in Guadeloupe, and 0.38 in Curacao.

Strong high pressure, that is centered to the N of the area,
will maintain gale-force winds in the south central Caribbean
Sea tonight. The wind speeds will pulse to gale-force, during
the overnight hours, off the coast of Colombia, through Sunday
morning. Strong winds will continue across much of the central
and western Caribbean Sea through Saturday. Strong winds will
linger for the waters from the Windward Passage to Jamaica
through Saturday. Large sea heights, in long-period NE swell,
will continue in the region through Wednesday, and persist in
the central Caribbean Sea through Sunday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N13W to 24N21W, to
23N30W, to 19N40W and 20N60W, and beyond Hispaniola,
southwestward into the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated
moderate from 17N in the Caribbean Sea to 21N in the Atlantic
Ocean between 60W and 71W.

A 1027 mb high pressure center is near 30N63W in the Atlantic
Ocean, about 165 nm to the SSE of Bermuda. Surface anticyclonic
wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the N and NW of the cold
front/stationary front.

Broken to overcast high level clouds are within 120 nm to 300 nm
on either side of the line from the coastal waters of NE
Venezuela near 10N60W, through 14N35W, across the Cabo Verde
Islands, to Mauritania.

Strong high pressure in the western Atlantic Ocean will maintain
strong trade winds in the waters that are to the south of 22N
through Wednesday evening. Large sea heights, in long-period NE
swell, will continue in much of the region through Wednesday.
The wind speeds will diminish, from late Wednesday through
Thursday, as the high pressure weakens in the northern waters.
A cold front will arrive in the northern waters on Thursday
evening, and continue southward through Saturday night. This
cold front will be followed by fresh to strong N winds and
building sea heights, in large N to NE swell.

$$
mt
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