[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082352
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
652 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

Strong high pressure of more than 1040 mb will build over the
western Atlantic off the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast Thu into Fri,
resulting in strengthening trades over the Caribbean Sea by this
evening. Nocturnal gale-force winds are expected each night off
the coast of Colombia beginning tonight through at least Sunday
night. On Friday, gales are forecast to persist through the
daylight hours. The winds will cause seas to range from 10 to 13
ft Thursday and 13 to 17 ft by Friday. By Friday, wave heights in
excess of 12 ft are expected to cover a very large area in the
central Caribbean sea, from Panama and Colombia northward to the
southern coasts of Jamaica and Hispaniola. See the latest High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 01N28W. The ITCZ extends from 01N28W to the coast of Brazil
near 03S40W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03S-11N between
11W-18W, and from 02S-03N between 32W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating front extends from South Florida to 22N90W to
25N100W. As of 08/2100 UTC, the front is analyzed to have
dissipated. Scattered clouds are left over near where the front
was. Isolated showers are in the far western Gulf, west of 95W,
from 26N southward. A 1031 mb high is centered over southern
Alabama. The high extends surface ridging across the basin.
Moderate to fresh NE-E winds prevail across much of the area,
except for E-SE winds in the far western Gulf.

The high over Alabama will shift eastward through Friday night. A
strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Friday night. The
front will extend from the Florida Panhandle to the NW Yucatan
Peninsula Sat night. Gale force NW winds are possible near the
coast of Veracruz Sat afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect.

A surface trough is over the central Caribbean from 17N76W to
10N78W. The ASCAT pass from late Wednesday morning shows fresh
trades east of the trough. Strong NE winds extend from the
southern coast of Cuba to the northern coast of Honduras.
Scattered showers are over the central Caribbean from 13N-18N
between 75W-80W. Isolated showers are over Central America from
Belize to Panama, to include the Gulf of Honduras and the coast of
Costa Rica. Radar imagery shows isolated showers over Puerto
Rico. A large mid- to upper-level high centered over Puerto Rico
and Hispaniola covers most of the basin, leading to subsidence.

Strong high pressure of more than 1040 mb will build north of the
area over the western Atlantic off the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast
through Friday, then reside over the western Atlantic through
this weekend. Expect strong to near gale trade winds and building
seas across the entire Caribbean Sea through the end of this
week and into the weekend. Seas of 12-18 ft are expected to cover
a very large portion of the area in the Caribbean Sea Friday
through Monday. Gale force winds are expected near the coast of
Colombia tonight through Monday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N66W to 28N71W, then continues as a
weakening cold front from 28N71W to 25.5N80W. A pre-frontal trough
extends from 31N61W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Cloudiness
and possible showers are near and within 120 nm NW of the trough
axis. A 1031 mb high is centered over southern Alabama. A surface
ridge extends from the high eastward to 30N70W. Ridging covers the
eastern Atlantic, anchored by a pair of 1033 mb highs near 36N35W
and 35N24W, respectively. The ASCAT pass from Wednesday morning
shows strong NE trades from 12N-26N between 19W-47W.

The cold front extending from 31N66W to 28N71W to 25.5N80W will
move E to extend from 31N55W to 27N60W to 22N77W Thu, then
continue to the E of the forecast waters Fri. Strong high pressure
of more than 1040 mb will build over the western Atlantic off the
U.S. mid-Atlantic coast through Friday, then remain in place
through this weekend. The high will produce a very large area of
strong E winds and building seas across the entire region from the
Caribbean to 30N between 60W-80W. The highest winds and seas are
expected to affect the waters E of the Bahamas Thu night through
Sat, and conditions will be very slow to improve into early next
week.

$$
Hagen
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