[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061135
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
635 AM EST Mon Jan 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1135 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 04N08W to 01N07W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 02N30W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is 200 nm south of the monsoon trough,
and from 00N-05N between 14W-34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb
high centered near 27N87W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
prevails across most of the basin, as noted in scatterometer data,
while moderate to fresh winds are noted east of 86W.

High pressure will persist over the NE Gulf through tonight. A
cold front will cross the northern waters Tue and Tue night, then
stall and weaken over the southern Gulf on Wed. Fresh to strong
return flow will prevail across the region Thu through Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic and enters the
NW Caribbean Sea from the Windward Passage SW to Jamaica near
18N77W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. Near
the coast of Belize and Honduras, a surface trough extends from
18N87W to 15N83W, with scattered showers and tstorms in the
vicinity of the trough. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are
noted across the western Caribbean west of 77W, while moderate
trades prevail elsewhere.

The weakening cold front extending from the eastern tip of Cuba
to Jamaica will dissipate later today. Strong high pressure will
build north of the area through mid week, resulting in
strengthening trade winds and building seas across the Caribbean
and Tropical N Atlantic waters. Gale force winds are expected near
the coast of Colombia Thu night through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N56W to E Cuba near
20N74W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. To the
east, a surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 21N41W
to 13N50W with scattered showers in the vicinity extending 160 nm
east of the trough. Surface ridging prevails across the eastern
Atlantic, anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 32N23W.

A western Atlantic cold front extending from 31N57W to the eastern
tip of Cuba will stall from 31N50W to Hispaniola tonight, then
dissipate on Tue. Another cold front will move off the southeast
U.S. coast later Tue and cross the waters Tue night through Wed
night. Expect strengthening winds and building seas Thu through
Fri night as strong high pressure builds over the western
Atlantic.

$$
MMT
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