[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1259 AM EST Mon Jan 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 03N09W to 00N07W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 01N30W to 01S44W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is 200 nm south of the monsoon trough,
and from 00N-05N between 20W-31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1028 mb
high centered near 28N87W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
prevails across most of the basin, as noted in scatterometer data,
while moderate to fresh winds are noted east of 86W.

Fresh NE winds across the SE Gulf will diminish tonight as high
pres builds over the northern waters. Another cold front will
cross the area Tue and Tue night, then stall and weaken over the
central Gulf Wed into Wed night. Fresh to strong return flow will
prevail across the region Thu through Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends across the western Caribbean from 19N75W to
18N78W, then weakens to near the coast of Nicaragua. Scattered
showers are within 60 nm of the front and near the coast of
Nicaragua. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted across the
western Caribbean west of 77W, while moderate trades prevail
elsewhere. Behind the front a surface trough is noticeable
extending from the Yucatan Peninsula to 17N84W, with scattered
moderate showers near the trough into the Gulf of Honduras.

The cold front is weakening and slowing down and will stall from
eastern Cuba to the E coast of Honduras later tonight, then
dissipate by Mon night. Strong high pressure will build in the
wake of the front N of the area by mid week. This will result in
strengthening trade winds across the Caribbean and Tropical N
Atlantic waters. Gale force winds will affect the waters near
Colombia beginning Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N58W to E Cuba near
20N74W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. To the
east, a surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 21N43W
to 13N47W with scattered showers in the vicinity extending 120 nm
east of the trough. Surface ridging prevails across the eastern
Atlantic, anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 33N20W.

Western Atlc cold front will stall from 24N65W to near Hispaniola
Mon, then weaken and dissipate by Mon night. High pres will build
in the wake of the front. Another cold front will move off the SE
U.S. coast Tue and cross the waters Tue night and Wed. Expect
increasing winds and building seas Thu and Thu night as strong
high pres following the front builds over the western Atlc.

$$
MMT
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